Economist Marek Zuber referred to the last results of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which aroused a lot of emotions. “We actually had such a hurrayopymism. It is a fact that there was no such growth for a long time. […] But when we look at the history of the last 15 years, i.e. since the previous summit of October 2007, it is the New York Stock Exchange or the one in Frankfurt are light years ahead of us, “noted Marek Zuber. In his opinion, although the stock market results can be optimistic, it Caution must be exercised, especially in the context of geopolitical factors, such as the war in Ukraine.
Quoted fragment of Onet in the morning financially:
Marek Zuber pointed to the key role of consumption as the main engine of economic growth. “Polish economic growth is mainly based on consumption. Last year it was powered by a record increase in the minimum wage and wages in the budget sphere” – noted the economist. Now the dynamics of consumption may be lower this year due to the growing tendency to save: “Poles decided to save, which is not good for economic growth, but it has a positive impact on inflation” – he assessed.
Inflation: high level stabilization
Marek Zuber reminded that inflation stabilization is only partly good news. The increase in prices in Poland is still at a high level. “However, we have one of the highest inflation in the European Union. […] She is not falling yet, she stabilized at a very high level. Sure, it is not 18.4 percent anymore. – Space level from two years ago – but it is clearly above what we want to have ” – emphasized the economist.
Predicts that if the current forecasts work, In the middle of the year, we can expect two interest rate discounts. However, achieving an inflation target of 2.5 percent. It will be possible in two years at the earliest.
Investments: Key to Development
The expert drew attention to Poland's huge investment needs in the coming years. “We have internal investment plans and these are plans that are forced by reality. […] I estimate that we will spend over PLN 200 billion on energy and transmission networks only, “Zuber pointed out. In total, investments in energy, railway, defense and hydrotechnical projects can consume up to PLN 1.5 trillion in the next several years.
Zuber noted, however, that the implementation of these plans requires proper management by the government and the effective use of EU funds and loans. “If we do not do this, then in 2-3 years the current will start […] Not because there will be no place to produce energy, but because there will be no way to send it, “warned the economist.
Opportunities for the Polish economy
In the international context, Zuber drew attention to the potential benefits of EU support packages and defense investments. “We estimate that about PLN 100 billion can reach Poland – probably in the form of loans – but it is still an important element of the puzzle,” he said.
Summing up his speech, Marek Zuber emphasized the importance of responsible economic policy: “Most today depends on the Polish government, regardless of who will rule. […] How to do so that, as much as possible of these funds translates into the development of the economy? It would be an amazing impulse for Poland. “
The whole program is available here.
Onet in the morning. Financially
Onet in the morning. Financially is a weekly program in which Business Insider journalists talk to invited experts of the business world and politics about current events and issues related to the Polish economy, public finances and the impact of politics on the wallets of every Pole.
The program can be watched every Wednesday at 10 on the main page of the Onet portal, and from 11 as a podcast at Onet Audio.
