In the report from a month ago, wage increases amounted to 7.6 percent. It was expected that now increases would accelerate to 8 percent. Meanwhile, they slowed down to 7.1 percent.
Average salary in Poland. This is a real growth
The economists of the PKO BP bank admit that the expectations were greater, and The nominal increase in salaries was the lowest since February 2021. What's more, “The real increase in wages has decreased again, although it remained solid, slightly above 4 percent.” – they calculated.
“The decrease in dynamics is particularly surprising, taking into account the expiry of the effects of a high base in terms of” mining and extraction “and” production and supplying and supplying electricity, gas, water vapor and hot water. ” The lower salary growth rate was recorded in most categories reported by the Central Statistical Office” – Comment on Credit Agricole economists.
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In the context of a real increase in wages, they say that the rate of salary growth in companies has decreased to 4.1 percent. from 4.3 percent in July. “As a consequence, the real dynamics of the payroll fund decreased to 3.2 percent compared to 3.4 percent in July and 3.8 percent in the second quarter. This is support for our forecast, according to which dynamics consumption decreased in the third quarter to 4 percent. compared to 4.4 percent in the second quarter” – forecast ca.
Salary increases inhibit. It is fuel for interest rate reduction
“Such data is fuel for serious considerations on the reduction of interest rates by the MPC in October” – they assess the economy of Bank Pekao.
In a similar tone, they comment in mBank. “Meanwhile, the MPC gets further soothing data in the form of lower than expectations of wage growth. This is the second month in a row, when the wages are growing more slowly than the consensus indicated,” they pointed out.
ING Bank Śląski experts add that the pay rate “pregnancy down” instead of stabilizing at a high level, which the MPC was afraid of.
“Employment has also dropped (0.8 percent y/y). Compared to July, the number of full -time jobs decreased by 15,000, so the most from one year after the end of data is a bit better. May was worse, negative trends on the labor market are not intensifying” – we read in the entry of ING economists on Platform X.
The average salary is growing too fast?
Actual data on the increase in salaries proved to be worse than forecasts. There are also voices that increases are too big anyway. “Performance in Poland does not grow quickly enough to justify such a high rate of salary growth in the economy” – believes Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist of the Lewiatan Confederation, which is an organization of employers.
In the commentary, it indicates that entrepreneurs in survey research indicate abstinence in employing new employees, which may be one of the reasons for continuing to remain relatively high wage growth dynamics.
“Companies do not employ or even often terminate the term, which is a solution that reduces labor costs. A cheaper solution is to increase the salary to employees who stay with the employer. This pattern, however, is slowly running out” – says Mariusz Zielonka.
He indicates that the employees of the CSO moods can be seen more and more a tendency to save.
“The salary dynamics may weaken in the near future. This year, however, it will continue to oscillate within 7-8 percent. Next year is probably a gradual descent to a level similar to 6 percent. “ – forecasts a leviatan expert.
