On Friday at 14.30 Polish time we got to know key data from the American labor market. It seems that the dismissal of the head of BLS, the institution responsible for statistics in this area, was not much done by Donald Trump a month ago. In August, the number of new jobs was much lower than in July and turned out to be less than forecasts, and to make matters worse, the reading for June was revised, which did not balance the slight search of the July reading up.
In addition, the main unemployment rate increased to 4.3 percent, the highest level in almost four years, and the U-6 unemployment measure jumped to 9.1 percent, which is the highest since October 2021.
The dollar's ratings reacted to these data, the American currency began to weaken. A moment after the publication of BLS statistics, the EUR/USD exchange rate grew by over 0.7 percent. And for one euro, an $ 1.1749 was paid on the wholesale market, most from the end of July.
EUR/USD currency exchange rate on Friday, September 5.
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STOOQ
The dollar weakness was also visible in the USD/PLN currency pair. The exchange rate dropped by 0.7 percent And PLN 3.622 was paid for one dollar. This is the least from the end of July.
The reaction can also be seen on the market of American bonds, whose profitability dropped (i.e. prices increased) both at the short and long end of the curve (i.e. short -term profitability and long -term tax papers). The most, by 0.1 percentage points, the profitability of two -year bonds dropped to 3.489 percent.
Economists of mBank wrote on portal X that the data published today for August “in their opinion” seals the September reduction of the feet by the Fed “. The federal reserve, contrary to the pressure of President Donald Trump, does not decide to reduce interest rates (the cost of money in December 2024 was recently reduced). At the end of July, the Fed announced that it maintains his feet unchanged with 4.25–4.50 percent.
The market is convinced that on September 17 there will be foot reduction in the US by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00-4.25 percent. Although it is worth noting that such a consensus had already existed before the publication of the data. Investors value, the likelihood of cuts at the meeting at the end of October at almost 90 percent, which would bring money to the range of 3.75-4.00 percent. (based on CME Fedwatch Tool). Another reduction according to this tool is to take place on December 10, as a result of which the rate would drop to 3.50-3.75 percent.
