Along with the record concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, the carbon budget is shrinking – the amount of CO2 that we can still enter into the atmosphere to stay below 1.5 degrees C. The latest calculations say about only 130 billion tons of CO2 at the beginning of 2025. At the current emission rate, it is enough for just over three years before we exceed the critical ceiling.
So it seems that the window, through which we could safely enter the path of limiting temperature growth, practically closed. Even if in the future it is possible to cause “negative emissions” and lower the temperature, it This process will be slow, expensive and will not withdraw many of the already launched changessuch as the increase in seas or loss of biodiversity. The more important is every ton of limited emissions today.
This can be seen very clearly in Africa
Africa feels severely, where the combination of heat, dried and violent rainfall causes the largest humanitarian crisis associated with the climate for a decade.
Scientists emphasize that without a urgent slowing down the pace of insulation, the continent will become in the face of a spiral of economic and social losses – from losing crops to internal migration.
Meanwhile, there are several months left to the Belém Belém in Brazilian Belém, and new national climate plans (NDC) have so far been transferred by only a dozen or so countries, responsible for approx. 16 percent. global emissions. UN, although allowing delay, Alertsthat no ambitious updates will be reduced by the gap Between the goals of the Paris Agreement and the current course of the world.
A small number of applications signal a serious problem. Despite the legally binding obligations, only a few governments – in practice only Great Britain – presented plans in accordance with the trajectory of 1.5 degrees C. Other countries are still calculatinghow to reconcile the reduction of emissions with economic development, although many analyzes show that well -integrated strategies could simultaneously lead up to 175 million people out of poverty.
September will bring the African UNFCCC climate week in Addis Abeba. The deliberations will focus on access to financing, fair energy transformation and the support of countries working on their NDCs. The leadership of developed countries will be crucial here, which, having the largest historical participation in emissions, They should demonstrate a more decisive departure from fossil fuels and generous financial instruments for the rest of the world.
Signals flowing from the latest climate indicators are clear like macroeconomic data showing the recession: delaying decisions deepens both the costs and the scale of future losses. G20 is responsible for about 80 percent. global emissions, and yet only five members of this club – Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States and Great Britain – has already updated its goals for 2035.
If the largest economies are managed to present coherent, reliable decarbonization strategies in the coming months, it will be possible to slow down the insulation trend and reduce the risk of exceeding subsequent critical points. The game is not only about climate, but also about the socio-economic stability of the world. Scientists and authors of the report say directly: “We are 3 years old to avoid the worst effects of climate change.”
