ETS2 is not as terrible as they paint him? “The impact of the system will be much less drastic”
The ETS2 system, which will come into force from 2027, will impose a tax on fossil fuels used for heating buildings or in transport. The costs will largely be borne by suppliers, including small and medium -sized companies. – The potential impact of the ETS2 system on the SME sector in Poland will be much less drastic than it might seem. However, it is necessary to prepare the appropriate instruments that support entrepreneurs into a change in a low -emission direction, but at the same time will avoid double compensation – indicates the Wiseeurop report entitled “Fishing or fish? Support for Polish SMEs in connection with the introduction of the ETS2”.
The transport and building sector is responsible for over 40 percent. greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The new ETS2 emission trade system, which will cover gasoline, diesel and heating fuel, can bring about EUR 300 billion of revenues in 2026-2032 – according to the analysis of the Transport & Environment organization. The new tax is to accelerate departure from fossil fuels. Under the provisions of the enterprise – in accordance with the “pollutant pays” – they must acquire permissions for every tone.2.
– In contrast to the already functioning ETS system, entities obliged to purchase the appropriate number of emission rights will be suppliers or distributors, and not directly emission entities, i.e. households or communities. This solution aims to limit administrative obligations imposed on citizens, while implementing a system that increases the costs of using fossil fuels or – being more correct – more emission fuels by households and small businesses – says Krzysztof Wal, Program Development Director at Wiseeuropa and author of the report entitled “Fishing or fish? Support for Polish SMEs in connection with the introduction of the ETS2”.
The new regulations are to allow the emission in the transport and construction sector to reduce by 2030 by 42 percent. relative to the situation of 2005. In December last year The EC announced that in order to ensure this trajectory, the number of emissions will fall from 2028 by 5.38 percent from 2028. The impact of the introduction of the new system will not be the same throughout the European Union. The Wiseeurop report cites analyzes indicating that it will more negatively affect the wealth of Central and Eastern Europe societies, including Poland – both on the citizens of these countries, as well as small and medium -sized enterprises.
According to estimates, the introduction of the ETS2 system will in the perspective of 2030 increase the costs of heating with coal and gas by 83 percent. and an increase in gas and diesel price by approx. 85 percent So these will be much smaller increases than those caused by the energy crisis. The calculations of the Polish Economic Institute, cited in the Wiseeuropa report, indicate that the price of electricity during the energy crisis increased by 215 percent, coal by 140 percent, and oil by a quarter.
– The introduction of the ETS2 will have a lower impact on fuel and heating costs for SMEs than the energy crisis. It is worth noting, however, that the indicated increases relate to the increase in prices, which were shaped by the energy crisis, as well as earlier by Covid-19, at a significantly higher level. Thus, it is warned against a simple conclusion that the growth will be lower enough, which would justify less ambitious support systems for SMEs in connection with the introduction of a new system – emphasizes Krzysztof Wal. – It could be a mistake to accept the approach that these enterprises remain resistant to a change in energy prices, i.e. that there is no justification for state intervention in this regard.
The report presents an analysis of whether it is necessary to help SMEs or all enterprises should be covered by it and in what form help should be provided to such companies. As its author indicates, various forms of support are available, starting from non -returnable subsidies to preferential loans for entrepreneurs affected by a new system. Another form of assistance could be advisory programs supporting the development of enterprises' knowledge about investments and activities that may reduce their costs.
– ETS2 will have an uneven impact on individual SMEs and will be particularly severe for transport companies, some commercial enterprises, e.g. where the sales model is based on commercial representatives and the Horeca industry – says the expert. – The funds available as part of possible subsidy assistance are limited, also by law. Therefore, one of our key recommendations is to focus on other forms of support for entrepreneurs, leaving direct financial assistance for the most affected or exposed to the negative effects of the introduction of the ETS2 system.
According to the study conducted by PI, in 2023, although small and medium -sized enterprises from the service and construction industries declared to some extent “resistance” to changes in the prices of energy carriers and electricity itself during the energy crisis, most of them coped with rising costs by raising prices. The Wiseeurop expert indicates that it can be similar this time, so the fact of translating increased fuel costs into prices should be taken into account when deciding on the form and support amount for such companies.
– The mechanism of providing support for entrepreneurs should therefore, at least at a minimal level, examine the ratio of the costs of conducting the activities of entrepreneurs applying for support with their revenues, so as to catch entrepreneurs who really suffered damage in connection with the increase in fuel prices – postulates Krzysztof Wal. – Even in the event of some losses by the enterprise in connection with the increase in prices, it seems that a given company could show that the loss suffered did not result from mismanagement and that actions were taken that in the medium -term perspective will reduce the losses related to increasing fuel costs.
It should also be key dependence on the amount of help in having the appropriate activity transformation plan. Especially since in the energy crisis, as indicated by the Pie report, a relatively small number of SMEs decided to carry out an investment in its own energy sources or exchange of a fleet of cars with electric vehicles to deal with the negative effects of this phenomenon. This percentage in the case of micro and small entrepreneurs was particularly low.
– Entrepreneurs who want to benefit from state support should be able to show that the need for support is temporary, and specific activities are planned to limit or even eliminate the need to use public support. What seems important, however, entrepreneurs should benefit from state support in the preparation of such plans, so that the lack of adequate technical knowledge does not disqualify entrepreneurs from the possibility of obtaining a subsidy – argues the author of the report.
Another recommendation is to direct help to the regions most dependent on SMEs.
