We are dealing with a new, dangerous race of nuclear arms at a time when control systems are weakened and conflicts intensify – says the Stockholm International Institute of Pokój Research (SIPRI) published on Monday.
“The era of reducing nuclear weapons in the world, which has been going on since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end” – emphasized Hans M. Kristensen from Sipri. “We see a clear trend of increasing nuclear arsenals, exacerbating nuclear rhetoric and giving up arms control agreements,” says the expert.
The head of Sipri Dan Smith is also worried about “rapid development and use of a series of technologies, for example in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), cyber abilities, space resources, missile and quantum defense.”
“They radically change the definitions of nuclear abilities, deterrence and defense, and thus create potential sources of instability,” says Smith. In his opinion, “numerical arms control formulas will not be enough.”
The analysis reads that the United States and Russia have 90 percent World nuclear weapons. The size of military wrestling, i.e. ready -to -use heads, seem to remain at a stable level, but both countries implement extensive modernization programs that can increase the size and variety of their arsenals in the future. It was recalled that in February 2026, the American-Russian treaty from 2010 on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive weapon (new start) would expire.
According to Sipri, in the case of USA However, the comprehensive nuclear weapon modernization program in 2024 encountered challenges related to planning and financing, being able to delay and significantly increase the cost of a new arsenal. In turn, Russia last year had an unsuccessful test of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Sarmat.
The Institute estimates that China increases their nuclear arsenal faster than other nuclear powers, since 2023 the number of new nuclear heads of this country is growing by about 100 pieces a year. By January 2025, China graduated or was close to the implementation of about 350 silos for ICBM. “Depending on how China decreases to structure their forces, they may potentially have the same ICBM as Russia or the USA to the end of the decade,” forecasts Sipri.
IN Great Britain The government of the Labor Party declared in 2024 to continue the construction of four submarines with atomic drive and ballistic missiles (SSBN), maintaining continuous nuclear scares at sea and providing “all necessary improvements” to the nuclear arsenal in the future.
Similarly France It develops its programs aimed at developing a third generation SSBN and a new maneuvering missile launched from the air, as well as modernization of existing systems.
According to Sipri India In 2024, they slightly expanded their nuclear arsenal again and continued to develop new types of types of carrying this weapon. He did the same conflicted with India Pakistan, continuing work on improving nuclear weapons and the collection of fissile materials, which suggests the possibility of increasing the amount of nuclear weapons in the next decade.
In May, tension between India and Pakistan They turned into armed conflict. “The combination of attacks on military infrastructure related to nuclear weapons with disinformation threatened to transform a conventional conflict into nuclear crisis,” says Sipri Matt Korda analyst.
The development of the nuclear program also continues North Koreafor which – as Sipri emphasizes – it is a central element of the national security strategy. As estimated, this country has already accumulated about 50 heads and has enough fissile material to produce about 40 more. It was recalled that South Korean officials warned in July 2024 that North Korea was in the last phase of tactical nuclear weapons.
In the case of Israelit is believed that this country, although it does not officially admit to having nuclear weapons, it also modernizes its nuclear arsenal. In 2024, Israeli military conducted a rocket drive system test. Israel also seems to modernize its reactor used to produce a platoon in Dimon.
The SIPRI report shows that World nuclear powers (USA, Russia, China, France, W. Britain, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) have a total of 12,241 nuclear heads in readiness or stored. USA – 5177 heads, of which 1770 was placed. Russia – 5459, of which 1718 placed. China – 600 and 24. France – 290 and 280. Britain – 225 and 120.
The countries where the nuclear weapons of other countries are: Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Türkiye, as well as Belarus.
From Stockholm Daniel Zyśk (PAP)
Zys/ AP/
