The Israeli-Iranian conflict has not yet led to disruptions in global oil supplies, but some experts are still considering the risk of drastic steps taken by Tehran. In the case of ORMUZ Strait blockade, the effects for the market could be severe. In the assumptions, Poland is to formally maintain fuel reserves for ninety days, which would standardize short -term disorders. What, however, if the disorders last longer?
The fear of empty distributors and fuel deficit is usually gained strength in moments of the outbreak of armed conflicts, especially in the Middle East. Such a phenomenon could also be observed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when the stability of supplies in Europe was afraid. Crude oil reacts quickly to geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by the queues at the distributors in 2022, immediately after the first reports of the Russian attack on Ukraine.
Representatives of domestic concerns then assured that they were prepared for possible problems with deliveries, and industry organizations added that national warehouses were filled and reserves were enough for over three months.
The meaning of a three -month reserve and the role of rars
According to the analyst of the Reflex Fuel Office, the analyst of the Reflex Fuel Office, Urszula Cieślak, mentioned just over a quarter, results from the application based on old crises on the market. Such a supply is perceived as a buffer ensuring time for stabilizing actions, especially when disruptions occur as a result of violent clashes in the Middle East.
Responsibility for the organization of wrestling was assigned to both the Government Strategic Reserve Agency and the companies operating on the market. The national system was broken into two parts: mandatory supplies (run by producers and importers) and an agency that stores raw material as part of strategic supplies.
For every enterprise that launches fuels, the obligation to collect stocks is required by law – but from the point of view of security, the main entities in the industry are the most important. Orlen plays a key role here, which as the largest domestic player had to replace Russian oil with alternative delivery directions and currently largely consists of raw material from the Middle East.
According to data from the Energy Market Agency in March 2025, compared to the same period of 2024, an increase in mandatory stocks in the case of diesel oils was noted – by 66 percent, and the reserves of other types of fuels remained at levels similar to a year ago.
Gas cars would use the shortest stocks
“In the field of commercial stocks, compared to the same period of 2024, oil, engine gasoline, light heating oil and heavy heating oil increased (by 1.7 percent, 1.3 percent, 54.5 percent and 28.6 percent), while compared to February 2025. Motor gasoline and liquid gas LPG (in turn by 4.7 percent, 7.9 percent, 17 %) ” – we read in the ARE report.
In total, in compulsory and commercial supplies, we had gathered at the end of March 4.8 million tons of oil, 2.2 million tons of diesel, 0.7 million tons of gasoline and 144 thousand tons of liquid gas LPG. In March, we used 457,000 in Poland tons of gasoline, 1.6 million tons of diesel and 204 thousand tons of LPG. In other words, in the event of a crisis with supplies Gas users would be the fastest fuel deprived of fuelthen for gasoline, and finally the fuel would end with diesel owners. Diesel oil mainly uses truck transport.
Fuel supplies in Poland
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Energy Market Agency / Energy Market Agency
Impact of possible blockade and possible scenarios
The risk of blocking the Strait of Ormuz raises questions about whether the supply of raw material would seriously break. Experts believe that Iran has no interest in prolonged hindering oil flow, because it would cause international pressure. According to commentators, the countries selling oil in a different direction, while the Persian Gulf, buying China from them, and many exporters would not want much interference.
Many analysts point out that conflicts in the Middle East usually have a temporary impact on the prices of raw material. After a period of increases, they can fall again, especially when the global economy reveals signs of weakening demand. According to some specialists, if the voltages stop, you can return to previous forecasts, even talking about drops in oil prices clearly below $ 60. for a barrel.
Three main warehouses
The national warehouse infrastructure is largely provided by PERN. This company provides four bases capable of collecting over 4.1 million cubic meters. oil, mainly in Miszewk Strzałkowski, Adamów and in the Gdańsk region, near Naftoport. As part of these facilities, both compulsory and operational supplies are stored.
Similar solutions function with our neighbors. In the Czech Republic, the reserves are also provided for ninety days of net imports and are financed by the state agency, while in Lithuania resources equal to 90 days of average daily net import or 61 days of typical domestic consumption (depending on higher value) – we read in the Interia material. Some materials are stored by entrepreneurs, and some are managed by a state agency to ensure maximum protection against the threat of a fuel deficit.
