There is still no progress in negotiations regarding the end of the war in Ukraine. Russian officials are trying to blame Western countries. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergei Riabkow noticed in an interview with the TASS agency on Saturday that the EU and NATO leaders “constantly encourage Kiev to continue hostilities.”
According to ISW analysts, there is only one way to force Putin to sit at the negotiating table. This is not about additional economic sanctions, which Donald Trump is to impose only when he decides that the war cannot be stopped. “Any increased economic pressure on Russia – although it is a positive element of politics – is not enough in itself” – we read in the ISW analysis.
Russia's significant losses are a condition for the success of negotiations
According to ISW, the key to the “pressure campaign” is crucial for the ISW to continue western military assistance for Ukraine. Sending weapons and equipment for Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the front by the US and Western European countries mean that Putin's army is suffering large losses, which in turn leads to the economic problems of the whole country. The economic collapse results – according to ISW – largely from these losses, and less because of the sanctions that Russia has already learned to celebrate.
“The theory of Putin's victory is based on the assumption that the Russian army is able to maintain creeping, gradual progress on the battlefield for longer than the Ukrainian forces are able to defend and is willing to support Ukraine longer than the West,” ISW analysts write. They emphasize that this strategy is the main reason for Putin to avoid substantive and serious involvement in peace negotiations. Meanwhile, achieving peace in Ukraine, which would be acceptable to both the USA and Europe, requires Russia's significant failure on the battlefield.
