According to preliminary data published on Thursday morning, the Polish CSO gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2025 increased year -on -year by 3.2 percent, i.e. approximately according to forecasts and slightly slower than in the fourth quarter of 2024 (3.4 percent) and against the March NBP projection (3.5 %). In quarterly terms, the increase slowed down to 0.7 percent. from 1.4 percent
The Central Statistical Office has not yet published detailed data, but based on these available economists of Bank Millennium estimated that the increase in consumption in the household sector slowed down to 2.6 percent. year to year with 3.5 percent In the fourth quarter, which was contributed to the slower increase in real wages. In addition – as they pointed out – in conditions of highly uncertain environment consumers still remained careful in their expenses, despite the still strong labor market. However, he accelerated the increase in investment outlays.
“What's more, after yesterday's strong import data in March, we think that companies in the first quarter have firmly enclosed inventory. They will probably help GDP growth, but the other side of this medal is to deepen the negative net export export contribution, especially since the European industry is still in a state close to stagnation” – they added.
Bank Pekao analysts pointed out that the gentle braking of GDP dynamics was announced a lot in advance by disappointments in monthly data from the beginning of the year. According to their estimates, 3.2 percent GDP growth consisted of solid (but still disappointing) acceleration of investments to 1.1 percent. year on year with -6.9 percent Quarter earlier and slowing down the dynamics of private consumption to 2.2 percent. year to year with 3.5 percent They also emphasized that the reconstruction of stocks and probably a negative net export contribution (which is suggested by yesterday's payment balance balance) was visible.
PKO BP experts estimated that the Polish economy – despite a slight slowdown in growth – is developing according to a positive scenario. They emphasized that after taking into account seasonal effects (including two working days less), GDP growth reached by 3.8 percent. year on year. “We will know the details at the beginning of June, but we already assume that The main driving force of GDP growth was private consumption, including mainly consumption of services. Private investments probably did not have a significant contribution to the growth rate of GDP, as opposed to public projects that could play a greater role. Net trade was inhibiting the growth, “they wrote in the commentary.
There will be GDP growth, but investments may be delayed
Experts of the largest Polish bank wrote that The data is a solid basis for optimistic forecasts for the next quarters. “Flow of EU funds, effects of reduction of interest rates, wide modernization of the defense industry in the EU – especially in Poland – and intensive public investments They should translate into acceleration of GDP growth to 3.3 percent. Throughout 2025, compared to 2.9 percent” – they said.
The Minister of Finance constantly believes in this year's faster growth, 3.9 percent are recorded in the budget, while the NBP founded 3.7 percent in the March projection. On average, commercial bank experts expect that in 2025 our economy will increase by 3.6 percent, although, for example, some rating agencies, such as S&P, see an increase of only 3.1 percent.
Bank Pekao analysts assessed that 3.2 percent Year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter is a slightly weaker result than they assumed at the beginning of the year (3.5-3.6 percent). However, they maintained their forecast of year -round GDP growth by as much as 4 percent, although they admitted that the risk for its implementation increased. “However, the loss in investment demand at the beginning of the year is relatively easy to catch up, So we do not lay down weapons in this field. A traching war and troubles of European exports may be a bigger problembut here we are dealing primarily with uncertainty and we are waiting for its clarification, “they noted.
“The initial result of the first quarter published today is good for the next quarters, when we expect to accelerate economic growth, mainly due to the clear revival of the investment. We maintain the GDP growth forecast throughout 2025 to 3.4 percent” – added analysts of Santander Bank Polska.
Bank Millennium experts wrote that Thursday data proved to be in line with their estimates and do not affect the GDP growth forecast throughout 2025 by 3.4 percent. “We think that GDP growth will remain relatively stable in the second and third quarters, shaping slightly below the many years. It seems that an increased tendency to save will persist in conditions of uncertainty related to events surrounded by the national economy. We also expect that this factor affects and will limit the company's investment decisions. This delays the expected revival of investment demandjust like the implementation of projects co -financed by European funds than the assumptions, “they said in the commentary.
They added that in such a situation, a solid increase in investment in the Polish economy will be noted only in the fourth quarter of 2025. At the same time, the economic situation abroad should slowly improve, along with the lower feet of the European Central Bank and rebuilt savings. “The foundations of the Polish economy remain very solid, but we emphasize that the risks for our expectations are greater than usual and result primarily from changes in customs policy in the world” – emphasized Bank Millennium experts.
Interest rates on inheritance trajectory
In May, the Monetary Policy Council reduced interest rates in Poland for over a year and a half. There was a cut by 0.50 percentage points, which brought the reference rate to 5.25 percent.
The economists of ING Bank Śląski, also referring to the final reading of inflation for April (4.3 percent year on year) published on Thursday, expect that from July that CPI inflation can be below 3 percent. And they do not expect it to be reflected in the following quarters, and in the middle of 2026 the increase in prices should be consistent with the inflationary of the NBP at 2.5 percent.
“At the same time in the first quarter of 2025, GDP growth slowed down to 3.2 percent year -on -year from 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. This means that this means that The MPC still has a significant space to continue interest rate reduction. We expect the next cutting of the feet to take place in July, by 0.25 percentage points. We also expect another two discounts of 0.25 points in September and November ” – they wrote. This would mean that at the end of 2025 the reference rate would be 4.50 percent, by 1.25 percentage points less than it remained for a year and a half.” In 2026, the council will continue to mitigate the monetary policy, reducing the reference rate to 3.75 % ” – – They added.
“Published data in our opinion do not change the current expectations regarding interest rates in the coming months. Considering the narrative of the President of the NBP after the May meeting, the MPC will keep interest rates at an unchanged level. By the end of the year, we expect a reference rate reduction with a total of 0.75 percentage points, and the next cut will not be ruled out in July, when the members of the council will dispose of the new projection when members of the council macroeconomic ” – pointed out experts by Bank Millennium. Other analysts expect that by the end of this year the feet will fall to a lesser extent, by 0.50 percentage points. (up to 4.75 percent).
