PKO BP economists wrote that April's data fit the picture of a selective recovery. In line with global trends, sectors related to investments, energy and automation are gaining. Other industries are more affected by the supply shock, higher prices of raw materials and pressure in the broadly understood food production sector.
“In the rest of the year, public investments will remain supported beneficiaries there will be construction, energy and some processing, which should gradually also support producers of intermediate goods. The war in the Middle East remains a significant risk for the sector. Higher prices of energy and raw materials will hit energy-intensive industries the hardest and may limit the scale of improvement in the entire industry,” they pointed out.
Credit Agricole economists wrote that based on available data, it can be concluded that an important factor limiting the slowdown in production in April was the growth in industries related to construction, including: in the production of products from other non-metallic mineral raw materials and the production of metal products, which was supported by the revival of activity in this sector.
“In addition, it should be noted that in April, as in March, there was a high growth rate in the production of intermediate goods, which was most likely related to accumulation of inventories by companies in connection with the prolonged conflict in the Middle East“- they wrote.
They added that the results of economic climate surveys (PMI) published today in the euro zone and Germany signal that the prospects for the Polish industry in May have deteriorated. They emphasized that it is particularly important from the point of view of domestic exporters weakening economic situation in German processingwhere there is stagnation in current production and a decline in new orders for the first time in four months.
According to Bank Millennium economists The weaker industrial production results in April do not reflect the deterioration of economic activity as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.
“In a significant part of the industries (e.g. production of motor vehicles, production of machinery and equipment), the decline in dynamics was a certain rebound from the exceptionally good results in March. These fluctuations may therefore be related to the natural variability of production. Especially since the economic indicators published so far do not indicate a clear deterioration in the mood of enterprises. A positive element of the published data is another month of growth in the production of investment goods,” they added.
See also: Economists are revising forecasts of Polish GDP growth. Rates may go up
ING Bank Śląski analysts assessed that some sectors face increasing competitive pressure from China. “The risk here is the growing inflow of imports from the Middle Kingdom, which accelerated particularly at the turn of 2025 and 2026. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East and the energy crisis are bringing about an increase in costs and another source of uncertainty in the conditions in which producers operate,” they said.
“We are afraid that the recovery in industry in the coming months will be moderate and a return to the situation in which production grows faster than GDP is doubtful.. Poland is launching huge public and armament investments, which will revive the industry, but, for example, the activity of the defense sector may turn out to be insufficient to immediately give a noticeable impulse to the entire industry, where we count more on other infrastructure and public investments,” added ING experts.
Bank Pekao experts assessed that the prospects for the Polish industry have deteriorated in recent months. In their opinion, the internal engines of economic growth remain strong and investment-related sections will grow at a solid pace exports will suffer from a decline in foreign demand and a slowdown in the global economy following the oil shock. This factor will also cool consumer demand in Poland.
“Looking at the other side, the Gulf War is primarily about… increase in production costs (liquid fuels, plastics, metals), which changes the economic calculation for domestic production and import of some of them, but will have a negative impact on the entire sector. In the current macroeconomic conditions, it will not be possible to fully pass on higher costs to the end user, a decline in margins and production is therefore inevitable“- they added.
Bank Millennium economists' published data do not change expectations regarding the economic growth path in the coming quarters. “In our opinion, they do not show the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. However, a prolonged conflict will increase the risk of economic deterioration. Regardless of the dynamics of events in the Middle East, we expect good results to be maintained in the construction industry, which will benefit from the inflow of funds from the European Union,” they concluded.
What about economic growth?
Construction and assembly production increased by 4.5%. year to year (despite unfavorable calendar effects in the form of fewer working days). Thus, for the second month in a row we are observing an improvement in the construction situation after a period of reduced activity in January and February related to the cold winter.
The revival in construction is broad-based. Growth occurred in all segments: buildings +5.2%. y/y, specialized works +4.4 percent y/y, infrastructure +3.9 percent y/y. However, the structure indicates an imbalance. Investment works are growing strongly (+13.0% y/y), while renovations remain under pressure (-15.4% y/y).
“Activity in construction has returned to the average level of the previous year. As for prospects for growth in construction production, we have been optimistic for a long time and we do not change our mind here. Despite problems affecting certain segments (building and industrial construction), 2026 will be a year of solid growth in industrial production and investments,” Pekao economists wrote.
According to Credit Agricole experts, the April data on industrial production, construction and assembly production, as well as wages and employment in the enterprise sector, published today, support their forecast of average annual GDP growth in 2026 (3.3%, which is one of the lower levels on the market, e.g. Erste's forecasts revised a few days ago assume 3.6%, i.e. the same result as in 2025). At the same time, the further course of the conflict in the Middle East remains an important risk factor for economic growth in the coming quarters.
