The plan with which Romania can checkmate Russia. NATO General: “I did much more for the US than others”
The US has announced that it will withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, and Romania and Poland are flocking to receive them. General (r) Virgil Bălăceanu and political scientist Sergiu Mișcoiu explain why Romania would be justified in requesting an increased presence of allies on its territory.
Romania would receive more American soldiers. PHOTO: AI
Relations between the United States and some of its European allies have deteriorated, and Washington is considering withdrawing thousands of troops or relocating them. To begin with, across the Atlantic it was decided that 5,000 of the US military stationed in Germany would be withdrawn, and Politico writes that countries such as Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Romania have expressed interest in hosting even more US troops. President Nicușor Dan himself admitted that Romania would like to receive more American soldiers.
Nicușor Dan and the 4 billion euro investment from Mihail Kogălniceanu
“Romania wants however many American soldiers. We are at about 1,500 now, after the episode of a month and a half ago. We have the military base from Mihail Kogâlniceanu, which is a staged investment of 4 billion euros in the coming years. But in no way incorrect attitude towards the European partners. It is a decision strictly up to the USA. To the extent that their lordships will consider that for collective defense Romania is a host hi, we will be very happy to do it“, said Nicușor Dan.
“Adevărul” turns to two well-known analysts, one military and one political, to find out what chances Romania would have to benefit from more allied troops, especially American soldiers. General (retd) Virgil Bălăceanu, who represented Romania at the NATO Command in Brussels and was head of the Multinational Brigade in South-East Europe, and Sergiu Mișcoiu, professor of political sciences at Babeș-Bolyai University Cluj, respectively Paris-Est Créteil University, accepted this challenge.
General Bălăceanu's scenario
General Virgil Bălăceanu displays moderate optimism and says that Romania has its arguments.
“Romania has a chance, given that, and it has already been announced, the contingent that was supposed to rotate or replace the American contingent in a rotational system, a brigade from Poland — the brigade that is to be deployed, the 2nd Armored Brigade from the 1st Armored Division will no longer arrive in Poland. And then we could go for a scenario with a probability, say, quite high as the effective brigades of the 2nd Armored Regiment, the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, but it historical terminology, to be deployed in Poland, and all the deployments in Poland can also influence the deployment in Romania, because the American V Army Corps Command is in Poland. The American V Army Corps Command is responsible for all the American forces, with the advanced elements in Poland. And then, in such a scenario, we can talk about a return of some American forces of an addition”, says General Bălăceanu.
General Virgil Bălăceanu. PHOTO: MApN
Even so, Romania would not escape its responsibilities. The increase of its own military forces, in conjunction with the armament policy, including through the SAFE program, would be just as timely, the general believes.
“I would note, however, even if other American soldiers will come to Romania, it fundamentally does not change the situation. And it does not change because the defense operation and deterrence of NATO, implementing the regional defense plans, does not mean a few thousand allied soldiers, but tens and hundreds of thousands. Something that the Russian Federation also knows. In crisis situations, NATO must deploy the structures at the level of army corps which, I repeat, means hundreds of thousands”says the general.
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This means that, in the event of a hypothetical Russian attack on Romania, the military forces that should bear the brunt, at least in the first phase, would be the Romanian ones. Obviously, reinforcements would be needed afterwards, explains the general.
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“We have the NATO force model, we will see if it remains valid, but we are talking about the first wave — 100,000, the second wave — 200,000, the third wave — 500,000, over different periods of time. Here is the NATO force. Personnel and related equipment and type of deployment. So the defense and deterrence operation on the eastern flank is not done with battalions, not with brigades, not even with divisions, but with army corps. Whether we are talking about the American V Army Corps, whether we are talking about the American XVIII Airborne Corps, whether we are talking about NATO's 10 rapid reaction or multinational corps, such as the one in Sibiu. They are the substance of the deployment for the implementation of regional defense and deterrence plans“, states General Bălăceanu.
Romania, he claims, should also convince France to permanently deploy a brigade in Romania, following the German model in the Baltic countries.
“If we managed to convince France to permanently deploy a brigade, as Germany is deploying an armored brigade in Lithuania next year, it would be a good example for other states as well. And then it would not be impossible for other European states to decide to send troops to Romania, to defend the southern eastern flank”believes General Bălăceanu.
Regarding an increased American presence, Romania would have a series of arguments by which it could request this from Washington. Unlike other European states, Romania actively supported the United States of America and did so continuously, says General Virgil Bălăceanu.
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“We can ask for the fact that we opened the airports, whether we are talking about Kogălniceanu, Otopeni, Câmpia Turzii, for air refueling aircraft, while Poland, for example, refused to give a Patriot battery to the American forces in the Middle East. So we had a greater openness to the sensitive moment, in the future, of the war in the Middle East and the participation of the trained states. I would say that we did much more more for the Americans than others. We also have the fact that we were the first to build the administrative area of the Deveselu shield, we have the argument that we will develop energy projects together with America”. are the arguments listed by General Virgil Bălăceanu.
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And the political scientist Sergiu Mișcoiu believes that Romania is entitled to receive more important support from the United States.
Sergiu Miscoiu. PHOTO: Personal archive
“We would also have our arguments if we were to ask for more allied troops, including American ones. Where, as we know, there is greater protection of the northern-Baltic flank and so on, and less protection of the southern flank, the Black Sea is a serious stake. The French have invested more than the Americans in this project to strengthen NATO's southeastern flank, and the Germans, perhaps wanting to recover some ground, would they might be tempted by this option, the Americans might be tempted to recover ground“, says Miscoiu.
But there is also a counterargument, adds Sergiu Mișcoiu. Poland is much more influential and knows how to achieve its goals, unlike Romania, he claims.
“Now, Poland has a much stronger lobby in the United States, and we have known this for a long time. Geostrategically, it can be more interesting than Romania. On the other hand, if there is an interest in a symbolic presence, at least in this area of the Black Sea, the United States could go for such a decision. Unfortunately, the strategic decision-making flow in Washington is so hectic at the moment that it is very difficult to determine a strategy that you can follow. Rather, you follow the event hazard which leads to certain decisions taken sometimes hastily”concludes Sergiu Mișcoiu.
