Can George Simion be defeated in round 2? What can Nicușor Dan from Basescu and Iohannis learn
The presidential elections of 2025 bring in the second round an unexpected confrontation between George Simion and Nicușor Dan, with a considerable difference between them: almost 20%. Although it seems almost an impossible mission, the history of elections in Romania shows that such differences can be recovered.
Between George Simion and Nicuşor Dan and a difference of about 20%. Photo: EPA-EFE
Although many are skeptical about the chances of Nicuşor Dan to defeat George Simion in the second round of the presidential elections since there is a difference of about 20%, it would not be for the first time that the candidate in the second place after the first round manages to win. The recent history of the presidential elections in Romania indicates as examples the situation of Traian Basescu in 2004 and Klaus Iohannis in 2014, both managing to overthrow the score in the decisive tour, notes ProTV.
In 2004, Traian Basescu entered the second round by 33.92%, while Adrian Nastase had 40.97%. However, Basescu won 51.23% in the second round, recovering almost 18 percent.
In 2014, Klaus Iohannis was in a similar situation, with 30.38% in the first round, compared to 40.44% as Victor Ponta had obtained, but the second round brought a situation reversal, Iohannis winning the support of the voters and, thus, the position of President of Romania.
In the 2009 elections, the fight between the 1st and 2nd place of the presidentials was much more balanced, between Traian Basescu (32.45%) and Mircea Geoană (31.15%) the difference being minimal, of only 1.3%, being followed by an equally close race in the second round, when Traian Basescu was last.
In 2025, George Simion obtained 40.96% of the votes, and Nicușor Dan 20.99%. The difference is significantly greater than in the mentioned cases, but the precedent exists.
However, the context in the presidential elections of 2025 is different, because in the mentioned situations the candidates in the first place in the first round were PSD leaders and premiers in office, figures associated with government, which generated an anti-system vote in the second round. This time, both George Simion and Nicușor Dan are seen as alternatives to the traditional political system, which makes the electoral dynamics unpredictable.
Remus Stefureac, the director of Inscop, points out that Nicușor Dan could overthrow the score and overcome George Simion only if they will go to a massive vote and those who have chosen not to participate.
“Although not impossible, It will be very hard for Nicușor Dan
To build a wide coalition of voters to overcome George Simion if the same level of presence will be kept in the 2nd round. George Simion has several basins from which he can attract votes in the conditions in which his score was double. Nicușor Dan's only chance will be for the 2 round to participate in significantly more voters than in the first round ”, explained Remus Stefureac, the director of Inscop.
