'Plumbers consistently make more than lawyers': Entrepreneur says 'American Dream' will transform

For decades, the standard formula for financial success has been the same in the United States and other countries around the world: go to college, get a degree, and get an office job, perhaps as a lawyer, consultant or banker, Fortune magazine recalls.

But entrepreneur and author Daniel Priestley is sounding the alarm about a major shift in the job market. He suggests that the traditional hierarchy of work (so-called white-collar office jobs above blue-collar physical labor) is actually reversing.

Priestley, founder and chief executive of Dent Global, a business accelerator, says he has seen the nature of the American economy change so rapidly that he envisions a future where “plumbers consistently out-earn lawyers,” as the roles of manual laborers are reevaluated and professional services face unprecedented disruption from artificial intelligence (AI).

“Over the past 25 years I've built companies from the ground up and been through the global financial crisis,” Priestley said in a recent appearance on the “Diary of a CEO” podcast. “But we've never been through what we're going through now,” he pointed out

“I've never seen so much fear about the disruption ahead,” he continued.

Ford boss estimated that 50% of office jobs could be eliminated

Priestley argues that we are witnessing a 'swinging pendulum', where the once high value placed on 'desk work in front of a screen' is shifting towards 'physical, hands-on work'. Other executives, such as Ford's Jim Farley, sounded a similar alarm, arguing that there was far more demand for manual labor than people willing to provide it.

Farley is concerned about staffing AI data centers and factories, which he sees as a crisis affecting the “core economy” based on manual labor, responsible for $12 trillion of US GDP, according to the Aspen Institute. Farley also said that artificial intelligence could eliminate half of “white collar” jobs, creating a massive demand for skilled trades and manual labor instead.

“There's more than one path to the American Dream, but our entire education system is focused on four-year college degrees,” Farley said at the Aspen Ideas Festival last summer.

“Hiring of entry-level workers at tech companies is down 50% since 2019. Is this where we really want all our kids to end up? Artificial intelligence will literally replace half of all white-collar workers in the US,” Ford boss warned.

Gen Z is already testing the “plumber instead of lawyer” theory

In the U.S., at least a portion of Generation Z has begun to move away from the classic white-collar job path and toward skilled trades in recent years. Vocational community college enrollment increased 16 percent in 2023, the highest level since the National Student Clearinghouse began collecting data in 2018. This includes an increase in students studying trades in construction, HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) and auto repair.

Part of this US Gen Z orientation toward manual labor is fueled by the same anxiety about artificial intelligence described by Priestley—and the realization that college may no longer be worth it. Nearly 80 percent of Americans have seen an increase in youth interest in careers in the trades, according to a Harris Poll survey of more than 2,000 U.S. adults.

Priestley, and numerous other executives such as Dario Amodei, the head of Anthropic, warn that change is coming fast. He says this transformation is being accelerated by the “instant” deployment of artificial intelligence, and that unlike the Industrial Revolution, which unfolded over several decades and required the construction of massive infrastructure, change will come much more quickly in the AI ​​era.

“Once an AI learns to be a lawyer in one place, it can be a lawyer everywhere,” he said, arguing that the digital web already exists.

In the USA, the problem is aggravated by a peculiarity of the American educational system

A Brookings Institute study published in February 2025 suggests that more than 30% of US workers could see at least 50% of their jobs disrupted by generative artificial intelligence. A commentary published by Brookings 2023 states as early as 2023 that AI will “revolutionize” legal practice by dramatically increasing efficiency in drafting, research, evidence discovery and document production.

Meanwhile, workers like electricians and bricklayers have a “blue ocean” of opportunity in front of them because of a severe labor shortage in the US for these fields. Priestley says this imbalance is caused by a “market distortion” created by government-backed student loans.

“A lot of young people who should have been plumbers, electricians, concrete pourers or bricklayers went to get a master's degree in butterfly mating habits or some other random degree that doesn't have a job associated with it, and then they end up $60,000, $70,000 or $80,000 in debt for this degree that nobody asked for,” he said.

“This distortion of the market means that now we don't have enough plumbers and electricians,” he added.

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