The dollar is gaining, the euro exchange rate is stable. The market is slowly losing patience

The prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz supports the dollar against the euro and puts investors' patience at risk. If the US and Israel do not change their policies, we may face further increases in fuel prices and a weakening of the Polish zloty.

The attention of financial markets remains focused on the Middle East, where the Israeli-American-Iran war has escalated. Two more oil tankers have been attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. There are still no military convoys for tankers wishing to sail through Hormuz, which were promised a week ago. And this leads to a renewed increase in oil prices, despite the announcement of the release of a large part of strategic reserves by the United States government.

– In our opinion, if there are no positive signals regarding the possible unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the market may begin to question Trump's current narrative about the short-term nature of the current conflict and its limited impact on global economic growth and inflation. This, in turn, could intensify the risk-off mode, strengthen the dollar, increase pressure on EM currencies and raise the yields of treasury bonds – wrote PKO BP economists in a morning report.

So far, the zloty market has been quite calm. On Thursday at 9:40 a.m. the euro rate was PLN 4.2608 and was only 0.7 groszy higher than the day before. For the euro-zloty pair, the key zone is PLN 4.30-4.31, where the key resistance is located. As long as the euro is traded at PLN 4.25-4.30, the situation for the zloty does not look bad.

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– Investors assume that continued high oil prices and general uncertainty will harm Europe and the euro more, resulting in, among others, pressure on a further decline in the EURUSD rate and weaker performance of European stock indices – noted PKO BP experts.

The globally strengthening dollar means that the price of the American currency on the Polish market is PLN 3.6900. Also in the case of the USD/PLN exchange rate, we remain below the March peaks (over PLN 3.73), which means that the situation is stabilizing and there is no pressure on an additional increase in fuel prices in Poland resulting from the weakening of the zloty against the dollar.

The Swiss franc is still almost record strong when paired with the euro. In the morning the euro was valued at just over 90 centimes. On the CHF/PLN cross, this set an exchange rate of PLN 4.7149. The British pound was quoted at PLN 4.9388, i.e. 0.8 groszy higher than the day before.

K.K

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