Beyond the hypocritical rhetoric, the Chinese PR is the state without which Russia's struggle could not have continued. How China gains from prolonging the conflict

The war started by Putin in Ukraine, which is entering its fifth year of existence, “also revealed the extent of Chinese complicity”, writes Professor Ioan Stanomir, who shows that the will of the government in Beijing is to “deepen the process of vassalization of Russia: the prolongation of the conflict serves only one purpose, that of Chinese hegemony”.

Four years after the launch of the Russian invasion against Ukraine, the future that our nations imagine can no longer be the same. War and peace have ceased to be simple concepts, part of the intellectual or political conversation. Trenches, barbarism and horror returned to Europe, after seven decades. And the return to the previous years is just an illusion.

The year 2022 is not an accident, but the culmination of an imperial restoration. The annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 already marked the crossing of a symbolic border. The inaction of the Obama administration and the European partners encouraged Russia on this path of expansion. Conciliatory tendencies translated this decline of discouragement. Pacifism and collective cowardice represented the historical framework in which the revival of Russia's hegemonic vocation was placed.

“China is the state without which Russia's struggle could not have continued”

For Vladimir Putin's regime in Moscow is no different from those that preceded it, historically. There is nothing surprising in the appeal to autocracy and war crimes. The tsarist and Soviet legacy represents the germinal bed of Putinism. What the dictator promises the Russian nation is glory. And in exchange for glory he demands blind obedience and human sacrifices. As so many times, the Russian state devours its subjects, invoking the sanctity of an empire built on mass graves and millions of victims.

The war in Ukraine revealed, in a dramatic way, the liquidation of the old international order. The aggressor was not denounced or sanctioned collectively. States outside the West have chosen benevolent neutrality towards Russia, while the “United Nations” has continued to be what it has been for many decades, a force that grants tyrants the respectability that is universally desired. The reaction to Russia's aggression indicated the fragmentation of international society and the influence exerted by Russia in a global context.

The war in Ukraine also revealed the extent of Chinese complicity. Beyond the hypocritical rhetoric, the Chinese PR is the state without which Russia's struggle could not have continued. The asymmetric relationship between the two autocracies is obvious, as is the will of the government in Beijing to deepen this process of vassalization of Russia: prolonging the conflict serves only one purpose, that of Chinese hegemony.

The novelty of the last months was the initiation, through American mediation, of a negotiation process. Diplomacy has become an option again, but the background on which it is placed remains the same, that of Russian barbarism. Peace must be more than a truce, just as it cannot be a capitulation. Here are the elements we cannot ignore.

“Is this peace possible?”

Is this peace possible? The answer is given by the conduct of Russia itself. The regime in Moscow sees peace as an instrument for the destruction of Ukraine. The requirements related to territorial cessions are not innocent: they indicate the continuity of a foreign policy project. Russia's intention is to fatally weaken Ukraine. The next step is to completely satellite it, following another wave of annexations.

The challenge of any peace is to avoid turning Ukraine into a new South Vietnam, unable to withstand and last. Security guarantees mean the realization of deterrence. The cost of a new Russian attack must be too high to accept. Military force must guarantee peace.

“Russia did not reach its goal”

In military and symbolic terms, Russia has not achieved its February 2022 target. The Ukrainian state continues to exist and regime change has not occurred. The scale of Russian human and material losses is overwhelming: Russia entered the longest conflict in its recent history. The front is almost frozen, and the only weapon of the Moscow regime is terrorizing the civilian population. The Russian economy exists only as a tool to fuel aggression.

Ukraine's peace objectives can no longer be defined by the restoration of territorial integrity, but presuppose, above all, the preservation of its viability. Its mere survival as an independent entity, in the year of grace 2026, is a relative sign of victory: Russia has been stopped from what would have been a triumphal march.

The battle for peace is fought not only on the battlefield in Ukraine: the operation in Venezuela and the crisis in Iran cannot be separated from this strategic picture. Attacks on the phantom fleet of tankers increase the pressure on Russia. The US Navy, assisted by European allies, can strangle this illegal export pipeline. As for Iran, the loss of an ally would mark a defeat for Russia.

The battle for peace in Ukraine implies, for the European nations in NATO, a return to realism and armaments. Conventional and nuclear deterrence is the alternative to surrender and capitulation. Strategic clairvoyance is essential. The defense of independence can never be negotiated.

In this future we have entered there is no more room for utopian idealism. The moment is that of military and industrial revival. Communist China and Russia are united by this revisionist feeling. From Europe to the South China Sea, passing through the Persian Gulf, confrontation with our enemies cannot be avoided. Ukraine is a central piece of this edifice that we have a duty to protect, through the firmness of our choices.

This opinion piece was originally published in Contributors