What the world might look like in ten years. The scenarios of almost 450 international experts
China is surpassing the United States economically. Russia's war in Ukraine is turning into a prolonged frozen conflict. Tensions around Taiwan are escalating and risking a world war. More and more states are acquiring nuclear weapons. Democracy is entering a period of sharp decline, and the international system built after the Second World War is losing its influence. Cryptocurrencies are eroding the dominance of the dollar. Artificial intelligence reaches the level of human capabilities or even exceeds them. NATO survives but is profoundly transformed.
These are some of the findings of a survey conducted by the Atlantic Council, through the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, among 447 experts in geopolitics and forward-looking analysis from 72 countries. The survey was conducted in November and December 2025 and looked at how they think the world will change by 2036.
A predominantly pessimistic perspective
The majority of respondents – 63% – believe that the world will be in a worse situation ten years from now than it is today. Only 37% believe that the global situation will improve.
About half of the experts are US citizens, over a fifth come from Europe, and almost a fifth from the so-called “Global South”. Most are men and over 50 years old, working in government, academia, non-governmental organizations, think tanks or the private sector.
China on the rise, USA in competition
Only 7% of experts believe that the United States will be the dominant power in 2036. Even fewer – 4% – anticipate a clear dominance of China. The overwhelming majority, however, believes that the two great powers will compete in a bipolar or multipolar world.
58% predict that China will become the leading global economic power in the next decade, compared to 33% who say the same about the US. In military terms, three-quarters of respondents believe that the US will remain the leader. Technologically and diplomatically, the two states are seen as close rivals.
In parallel, 70% of experts believe that Beijing will try to take over Taiwan by force in the next ten years. More than 40% anticipate the outbreak of a new world war, most likely around Taiwan or in the South and East China Seas.
NATO endures, but it is changing
Experts are divided on NATO's future influence. 35% believe that the alliance will become stronger, 35% that it will weaken. However, 44% believe that NATO will no longer exist in its current form in 2036.
39% do not believe that the US will continue to play a dominant role in the alliance. In the scenario of an American withdrawal, a group of European states, Germany or Poland could take the initiative.
Also, 85% of respondents believe that at least one new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2036.
Russia: weak but dangerous
Most experts believe that the war in Ukraine will turn into a frozen conflict. Only a third believe that Russia will achieve a favorable result.
In the long term, Russia is seen as a declining power. Some respondents (36%) consider even an internal disintegration possible. However, among those who anticipate the use of nuclear weapons in the next decade, 60% point to Russia as the most likely actor.
Artificial Intelligence: Rapid Progress, Growing Risks
58% of experts believe that by 2036 general artificial intelligence – systems capable of matching or exceeding human cognitive abilities – will be reached.
Although 56% estimate a positive global impact, concerns are growing. 14% believe job losses from AI will be the biggest threat to global prosperity.
More nukes, but not necessarily use
Iran is considered the most likely new nuclear state (66%), followed by Saudi Arabia. East Asian states such as South Korea and Japan are also mentioned.
However, 78% of respondents believe that nuclear weapons will not be used in the next decade.
Europe: more autonomous, but not dominant
The European Union is perceived as unlikely to become the main military or economic power. However, 57% of experts believe that Europe will achieve a greater degree of strategic autonomy.
The euro is not seen as the dollar's main rival. Cryptocurrencies, the Chinese yuan and gold are considered more likely alternatives.
Climate change and the 'water wars'
Climate change is no longer perceived as the main global threat – war between great powers now takes first place. However, more than 80% of experts believe that global temperatures will exceed the 2°C threshold above pre-industrial levels in the next decade.
64% anticipate armed conflicts in which access to fresh water will be a determining factor.
International institutions in decline
71% believe the UN will become less influential. Similar percentages indicate a decline in the influence of the World Trade Organization, the IMF and the World Bank.
44% believe that the current “democratic recession” will turn into a “democratic depression”.
The dollar remains dominant, but under pressure
Although the dollar is expected to remain the main reserve currency, 80% believe its influence will erode. 34% indicate cryptocurrencies as the main challenger, 21% the Chinese yuan.
The Global South, a different perspective
Experts from the Global South are more optimistic about China and more skeptical about the future of American power. They are also more likely to anticipate a major global conflict and a favorable outcome for Russia in Ukraine.
Overall, the survey outlines a more fragmented, competitive and unstable world – where power balances are shifting and uncertainty is becoming the new constant.
