Will the Monetary Policy Council be afraid of wage increases? Super Thursday with central banks and the US labor market

We have an extremely intense week ahead of us, in which investors' eyes will be focused primarily on the decisions of central banks. The decision will also be made by the Polish Monetary Policy Council, which in the last data package received a solid argument for not cutting rates. The week will end with a traditional report from the American labor market.

Monday, February 2

We start the week with the publication of “industrial” PMI indicators. In the case of the largest economies, these will be the final readings, which usually differ little from the preliminary estimates published at the end of the penultimate week of January. But for smaller countries, this will be the first publication of data for January. Of course, we are most interested in the reading for Poland, which, as usual, will be announced at 9:00.

Similar data will appear, among others: for Japan (1:30), China (2:45), India (6:00), Hungary (9:00), Spain (9:15), Czech Republic and Switzerland (9:30), Italy (9:45), France (9:50), Germany (9:55), the entire euro zone (10:00) and Great Britain (10:30), Canada (15:30) and the United States (15:45). In addition, as usual, at 4:00 p.m. the Americans will publish their ISM index for the manufacturing sector.

The results on this day will be published by, among others: Palantir and Walt Disney.

Tuesday, February 3

Tuesday promises to be the quietest day of the week. The macroeconomic calendar will be light and will consist only of data from the USA. At 4:00 p.m. Americans will show the December results of the JOLTS survey measuring the number of vacancies in the labor market. By dinner, we will receive a report on fuel stocks in the US prepared by API, which is a treat for investors trading in “black gold”.

Quarterly reports will appear on Wall Street, including: AMD, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Electronics Arts, Pay-Pal, Take-Two and Super Micro.

Wednesday, February 4

On Wednesday, attention shifts to the meeting of the Polish Monetary Policy Council. The market did not expect changes until March and the new NBP inflation projection. However, the last conference of the president of the central bank, prof. Adam Glapiński, could sow a lot of doubts in this area. The recent strong data on wage dynamics for December may be an argument for the lack of a possible reduction.

The rest of the investment world can watch the January PMI indicators for the services sector (at 10:00 for the euro zone) and the corresponding ISM indicator (at 16:00) for the United States. At 11:00 Eurostat will show December producer inflation in the European Union countries. At 2:15 p.m., the ADP report measuring employment change in the US private sector will be released. A report on industrial orders will arrive from Germany.

Investors will read the result report, among others: Alphabet (Google), Ely Lilly, Qualcomm and ARM.

Thursday, February 5

This will be the most important day of the week for currency and bond markets due to the decision of two major central banks. The Bank of England will decide on rates (currently 3.70%) and publish a quarterly inflation report, which may cause high volatility in the pound. Another decision on interest rates will be made in Frankfurt. The market will listen to every word of Christine Lagarde during the press conference. Moreover, the Czech Bank will also decide on the rates.

On that day, the traditional conference of the President of the NBP, Adam Glapiński, should take place, who will explain the reasons for Wednesday's decision of the Monetary Policy Council and refer to the inflation prospects.

Their results will be published by, among others: Amazon and chemical giant Linde.

Friday, February 6

We will close the week with the hottest data from the American economy, i.e. the NFP labor market report. Forecasted increase in employment in the non-agricultural sector by 40,000. and an unemployment rate of 4.4% will be key for the dollar and Wall Street.

However, before the attention is focused on the USA, in the morning Germany will show data on industrial production for December and the foreign trade balance. The same category of data will come from the Czech Republic, and Hungarians will inform about the dynamics of industrial production in their country.

Data from the US will be complemented by a reading of American consumer sentiment prepared by the University of Michigan (4:00 p.m.) and December consumer debt statistics.

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