Gas as a negotiation currency. “We replaced our dependence on Russia with gas from the USA”

Gas imports from the US are replacing supplies from Russia in Europe, but their prices are unpredictable, and the Americans want Brussels to turn a blind eye to the ecological parameters of fuel coming from overseas, Kacper Szulecki from the Norwegian Institute of International Relations NUPI told PAP.

These conclusions result from an international report entitled “Europe's Selective Blindness on Gas: US LNG and the Limits of Supply Diversification”, prepared by experts from the Dutch think tank Clingendael Institute, the German Ecologic Institute and NUPI. The analysis, based on data on gas flows until the end of 2025, showed that the European Union was rapidly replacing Russian pipeline gas with American liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Szulecki, co-author of the report, pointed out that after limiting imports from Russia, Europe faced the need to quickly find alternative sources of supply. In practice, this meant a sharp increase in LNG imports from the USA – by 61% in 2025. year to year and by 485 percent compared to 2019. American gas now accounts for more than half of LNG imports to the EU.

– We are replacing dependence on Russian gas with dependence on gas from the USA – concluded the NUPI expert.

In his opinion, American gas became a “negotiating currency” when in 2025 Donald Trump threatened the European Union to introduce new tariffs. From that moment on, increased energy imports from the US began to function as a political concession intended to reduce the risk of escalation of the trade conflict and stabilize relations with Washington. Ultimately, Brussels declared that in the future it would purchase LNG overseas for USD 750 billion.

Szulecki pointed out that American gas does not always meet the ecological parameters required by EU regulations, especially when it comes to full reporting of emissions in the entire LNG supply chain. Emissions monitoring and verification standards vary, making it difficult to assess the actual climate footprint of imported fuel.

– Washington would like the EU to turn a blind eye to the ecological parameters of the LNG sold to Europe. This raises doubts about the coherence of growing LNG imports and the EU's climate goals, commented the co-author of the report.

The authors of the study also pointed out that the final price of American LNG is very variable because it largely goes to spot markets.

– This directly translates into wholesale gas and electricity prices in Europe. Brussels has declared that it wants to buy LNG from the United States for USD 750 billion, but since its price has not been determined, it is not known how much of it would ultimately reach Europe, Szulecki emphasized.

The report was critical of the existing EU guidelines. In December 2025, before the last episode of the conflict between the US and Denmark over Greenland, the European Parliament adopted draft regulations regarding the abandonment of Russian raw materials. On February 1, member states are to decide on how to report supply diversification. In the project to be adopted by the European Council on this date, the United States is recognized as a safe energy supplier.

“Diversification cannot mean simply replacing one dominant supplier with another. True energy security requires accelerating the development of renewable energy sources and gradually reducing the import of fossil fuels, and not merely changing its direction,” the authors of the report summarized their conclusions.

EU Commissioner for Energy Dan Joergensen said on Wednesday in Brussels that dependence on American gas is a concern in the European Union. He added that the EU must consider the diversification of supplies. He added that the geopolitical changes resulting from the crisis in Greenland were an alarm signal when it comes to relations with the USA.

From Oslo Mieszko Czarnecki (PAP)

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