Trump. And Trump, as you can see, was convinced by the Russians on this topic. Look, the logic here is quite simple. We know that the US president recently returned to the topic that there have been no elections in Ukraine for a long time and that they need to be held. Characteristically, Trump only talks about the election of the president of Ukraine. He doesn't talk about others – especially the elections to the Verkhovna Rada or local governments.
And this fully corresponds to the Russian position. Putin keeps repeating that the Ukrainian constitution provides for the president's term of office to expire, and therefore the president's function is allegedly held illegally. I think the logic is this: the same Witkoff and his comrades regularly go to Moscow, and in Moscow everyone is buzzing about the fact that the president of Ukraine is illegal and that they will not sign anything with him. They reported it to Trump. Trump says: “Let them hold the elections then.”
Russians don't need elections, but the US doesn't understand that. Russians need the resignation of Zelensky, whom Putin personally hates. The elections themselves are not very interesting for them.
By the way, the Institute for the Study of War noted that as soon as Zelensky started talking about elections, Russians immediately started declaring: “no elections.” Zakharova said that Zelensky was demanding some security guarantees and that this was “great impudence.” This means they don't need elections. They need to disorganize the government in Ukraine. That's why they keep telling Americans that Zelensky's presidential term is over.
I think that the Russians planned to play up this issue of the end of the presidential term for a long time, gradually weakening Zelensky's negotiating position. But he understands this perfectly, so he decided to move the conversation to a plane that is beneficial to Ukraine.
On what level exactly?
The logic is very simple: if you want elections, give us a ceasefire. This is what Russians have been opposing for over a year. In fact, just over a year ago, negotiations took place between the Ukrainian and American delegations, which included a common position: a ceasefire first, and only then everything else.
The Russians do not want a ceasefire because they understand perfectly well that the continuation of the war is their only argument in the negotiations. The longer the fights last, the easier it is for them to dictate their will. Now they use the terror of Ukrainian citizens as an argument.
In this regard, President Zelensky said: “Okay, you want elections – no problem. But first, a ceasefire. Obtain a ceasefire from the Russians, ensure security – and the elections will be held.” However, I think it is obvious to everyone that these conditions will not be met.
So the bill that is currently being worked on, regarding holding elections during the war, will not actually be used?
Yes, it is drafted to show seriousness of intent. But at the same time, Oleksandr Korniyenko, deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, said directly: “the key condition is security, which, of course, no one will provide.” Therefore, it is obvious that there will be no elections in the near future. Until there is a ceasefire, which the Russians do not want.
I think that the Russians will not agree to a ceasefire at least until the end of winter, because they hope that the terror of the Ukrainian population will force Ukraine to capitulate. And in conditions of terror, there will be no elections.
What are Zelensky's chances of winning a possible election? The expert explains
Please tell me, purely theoretically: if the elections were held, for example, after winter, who could run apart from Zelensky? And will Zelensky himself run for a second term?
We don't know that. There will be many candidates. It's hard to say which of them will actually declare something. Many people will start an active election campaign. We don't even know the list of participants. Most importantly, we don't know what will precede this election. Of course, they should follow something: for example, after an agreement to cease hostilities.
And we cannot imagine what the terms of this agreement will be. And a lot will depend on it – especially on the position of the incumbent president. If, relatively speaking, these conditions are acceptable to Ukrainian society and are not perceived as a failure, Zelensky's chances for a second term will be very high.
A possible confrontation between Zelensky and Gen. is often mentioned. Valery Zaluzhny [obecnie ambasadorem Ukrainy w Wielkiej Brytanii]. How realistic is it and who would be the favorite?
Theoretically, this is impossible to predict. For one simple reason: we do not know in what context these elections will take place. Everything will depend on the conditions for ending the war. If the public perceives the result as acceptable, it will significantly increase the incumbent president's chances of running for re-election.
“Ukraine cannot offer Trump as much money as Russia”
You said that Zelensky is now playing the game the right way. But do you think he will be able to force Trump to put pressure on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire?
It's unlikely. Simply because Ukraine cannot offer Trump as much money as Russia. And with Trump, it all comes down to money. The Russians promised him a lot of money and that's really all. But at the same time, Trump does not exist in a vacuum. He has a party, there are elections, image issues.
Now he balances between his own image and Russian money. And that's why he's in a hurry to get the result. I need a quick result, not for the Nobel Prize or “peace by Christmas”, but because dragging out the process means growing opposition moods in Congress and society. At some point, it will simply not be able to explain to its citizens, most of whom support Ukraine, why it is actually selling Ukraine to Russia.
READ MORE: Prof. Davies warns Poland. “Trump will betray everyone. It's better not to be his friend”
