Labor Market Index informing in advance about future changes in the level of unemployment in November this year. decreased by 0.2 points, BIEC reported. “This was the second consecutive decline in WRP, proving the gradual exhaustion of the factors causing the periodic increase in the unemployment rate registered as a result of changes in the scope of activities and rules for registering the unemployed at regional labor offices,” we read in the report.
However, according to BIEC economists, this positive trend is not strong enough to increase employment enough to bring the unemployment rate permanently below 5%. “The most important barrier is the low supply of job offers,” the material states.
Analysts noted that since mid-2024, the inflow of new job offers sent to District Labor Offices has been systematically decreasing, and in October this year. their decline was recorded again.
“We observe similar trends in the inflow of offers appearing on Internet portalsas reported by the Job Offer Barometer. The end of the year and restrictions on the activities of industries whose activity declines in autumn and winter are not conducive to the creation of new jobs. But The downturn in labor demand has been going on for almost two years and the average number of job offers during this period decreased by almost half,” we read in the material.
Pessimistic moods
According to BIEC, in the Central Statistical Office's economic climate surveys in the industrial processing sector, the mood regarding increasing employment is still pessimistic and in November's surveys the percentage of companies planning job cuts increased slightly compared to October this year.
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Currently Representatives of the clothing industry declare the most layoffsand Increased recruitment of new employees is announced mainly by representatives of petroleum processing and electronics manufacturers.
The unemployed find work
“Positive phenomena on the labor market include: lower inflow into unemployment and increased outflow of unemployed people from employment. It is true that in September and October this year the inflow of new unemployed people increasedregistering at regional labor offices, however it was seasonalusually appearing at this time of year. After eliminating these factors the inflow of new unemployed was the lowest since the beginning of the year” – indicated in the material.
Slightly however, the outflow from unemployment to employment increased. Compared to the previous month, the increase amounted to just over 2,000. people.
“Once again we are observing a situation where… the number of unemployed people taking up employment is higher than the number of job offers received by PUPs. This is due to the fact that one offer from an employer may apply to more than one jobmoreover, unemployed people can take advantage of an offer that was received earlier or finally unemployed people find employment without the intermediation of the employment office,” economists comment.
