The inhibition applies to both government sales under the FMS procedure and export licenses to private American defense companies.
It attacks specific capabilities highly valued by European armies, from AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, through elements of Aegis combat systems, to HIMARS launchers and ammunition. The list of countries whose deliveries have slowed down includes, among others: Denmark, Croatia and Poland. Although the formal recipients are NATO allies, some of such lots are later transferred or replace equipment already given to Ukraine, which indirectly strengthens its defense.
Normally, this would be a set of routine and uncontroversial transactions. The difference is that, under the Arms Export Control Act, Congress must formally review them, and State Department officials, who brief the committee on a daily basis and finalize the procedures, they are largely on forced leave.
The Office of Political-Military Affairs, which helps handle arms sales, has been operating at only about a quarter of its typical staffing capacity in recent weeks. The domino effect is obvious. Each approval is delayed and the supply chain becomes congested.
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The stakes go beyond mere numbers
The US defense industry needs order flow to maintain production capacity, and European customers plan modernization and inventory rotation based on the delivery schedule.
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Each month of delay may mean empty spaces in warehouses or a longer waiting period for the integration of new systems. In the case of Ukraine, whose defense is based on a constant supply of ammunition and spare parts, each such slippage literally translates into risk on the front.
A US official quoted by Axios admits that the impasse “harms allies and partners and American industry” by inhibiting the delivery of “critical capabilities” abroad.
The political dispute over responsibility for the paralysis of procedures moved into the public space. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott accuses Democrats of blocking key sales, which – in his opinion – weakens the US industrial base and the security of allies. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican James Risch, warns that “China and Russia do not have a shutdown,” so Each American delay makes it easier for rivals to undermine the position of the United States and its partners. Regardless of the rhetoric, the facts remain the same. Until part of the federal administration returns to normal work, even undisputed and technical simple transactions will be queued.
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European allies must prepare contingency plans. For countries on NATO's eastern flank, delays in the delivery of components of naval systems or long-range means of destruction translate into slower development of deterrence capabilities. In turn, for Kiev, a smaller and less predictable inflow of equipment or its substitutions from NATO countries may make it difficult to maintain the intensity of defensive operations.
If the impasse continues, congestion will continue to pile up. The U.S. arms export control system has no fast track during a government shutdown, and any approval not granted today will become a delay on the assembly line and at the loading port tomorrow.
