Crude oil prices are rising on commodity exchanges on Monday. This was already the case this morning, when the new edition of the trade war between the US and China was in the spotlight. In the second part of the day, we learned the latest forecasts of the key producer organization of this raw material –OPEC kept crude oil estimates unchanged as supply continues to increase.
In September, the OPEC group increased production by 630,000. barrels per day.
OPEC forecasts demand for crude oil
“Global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day this year and by 1.4 million in 2026“, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly market report published on Monday, the conclusions of which are cited by Bloomberg.
A surplus is expected in the oil market next year.
Bloomberg points out that Over the last year, Brent crude oil futures prices have fallen by 18%. with much of this decline occurring since April, when OPEC's increases were first announced, which came as a surprise to investors.
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The forecast demand for oil also remained unchanged compared to the previous month's report and amounts to 42.5 million barrels per day this year. Next year, the demand for oil from this group is expected to increase to 43.1 million.
This month, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to restore only 137,000. barrels per day of suspended supplywhich is a slower pace than earlier this year.
Oil Forecasts. What does the OPEC report say?
Other key data from the monthly report cited by Bloomberg:
- Average production in September was approximately 43.05 million barrels per day
- Oil demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by approximately 130,000 tonnes. barrels per day, with the largest growth recorded in the OECD countries of North and South America
In OPEC, transportation fuels are expected to be the main source of oil demand growth this year, with jet fuel/kerosene demand increasing by 380,000 tonnes. barrels per day, and for diesel oil by 300 thousand. barrels per day.
The production of non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by approximately 800,000. barrels per day this year and by 600 thousand. barrels per day next year. The increase in production will mainly be driven by: Brazil, Canada, the United States and Argentina.
