The two scenarios in which Kiev has the highest chances of recovering all the captured territories after Trump suddenly turned to Ukraine

In a single post on social networks, Donald Trump claimed that the Kiev army, currently under the front, has a chance to “regain the whole Ukraine in its original form.” But the statement of the US President that Kiev can recover all the territories lost in front of the Russian army can only be done by a more direct help on the battlefield, writes The Guardian publication, in an analysis dedicated to the unexpected change of the leader from the White House regarding Ukraine.

From the perspective of Ukraine, these statements suggest that the US president has definitely renounced his efforts to convince him to give up the Donetk region in exchange for a vague promise of cessation of fire from Moscow – which was, for a short time, the result of his Alaska summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Trump's tone change has a certain value for Kyiv. But if the US president were serious about a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield, not only additional economic sanctions would be needed, but also a much higher supply of American armament and probably a direct military intervention from the West, notes Dan Sabbagh, journalist of the British publication specialized in the field of defense and security.

Russia was forced to withdraw only in two periods, after the beginning of its large -scale invasion in Ukraine of February 2022: in the spring of that year, when it expanded too much around Kiev, and again in the autumn of 2022, when it was facing a similar problem in Herson and when the defense was weak in the Kremlin region, and then to launch a campaign.

A critical aspect is that Ukraine failed in its counter-offensive in the summer of 2023. Western tanks, missiles and armored vehicles were provided, but used inefficiently by Kiev forces, being spread in several points along the front in attacks that did not take into account the mines, trenches and other defensive systems.

The winnings of the Ukrainian army were at most six miles (about 9.6 merbrics) in one or two points on the front and have already “melted” for a long time on the background of the slow, relentless advance from AVDIIVKA to the gates of Pokrovsk, in the center of Donet. Moscow has the initiative from the beginning of 2024 and gives no signs that it would give up.

Trump spoke about the tightening of economic sanctions, applying secondary customs tariffs to Russian oil buyers, but applied this only to India, not China, who imports even more. The US president brought into question, in the summer, including a deadline for 30 days before acting, then shortened, and after the Alaska meeting he completely forgot about him.

Even so, Trump's major change of attitude would not help Ukraine win the war. A more concerted supply of American weapons would definitely help Kiev, although the most urgent need for Ukraine is to improve anti -aircraft defense. But this is not to offer Trump, the American leader stating instead that Ukraine could win the war with “time, patience and financial support of Europe.”

The aspect to which Trump refers here is a continuation of the revised, in the summer, weaponing program, in which, through NATO, European countries pay for US military equipment for Ukraine. Although this clearly helps Ukraine, there is little chance of a dramatic change on the battlefield, in a new type of modern war, which goes largely with the help of drones.

Ukraine itself has long acknowledged that it cannot regain the territories conquered by Russia by military means. In February, President Zelenski accepted that a part or the entire occupied territory since 2014 will have to be returned to Ukraine by “diplomatic means”, while other experts talked about pursuing a strongly militarized defensive strategy.

From a military point of view, Ukraine could probably completely chase the Russian invaders in one of two possible scenarios. One of these is a radical change in Western intervention – perhaps the direct involvement of NATO air forces – but the idea is so unlikely that it should be excluded.

The second scenario is the collapse of Russia, probably as a result of a Kremlin regime change, for which, again, there is no sign.

Trump and “paper tiger”

Trump said on Tuesday, in a post on Social Truth, that Ukraine is able to return to the initial borders, with the support of EU and NATO. The message was posted after a meeting that he had with the President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, a meeting in which the head of the White House praised the incarnation with which the Ukrainian fighters defend their country.

Thus, Trump has shared in Social Media what seems to be a major change in his position towards the Ukraine war-and what could happen if and when the fights ended.

“After I came to know and fully understand the military and economic situation of Ukraine/Russia and, after seeing the economic problems that cause Russia, I think that Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is able to fight and regain the whole Ukraine in its original form. A very realistic option.

Trump claimed that the way the war went shows that Russia seems to be more “a paper tiger” than a great military power.

“Russia has been fighting for three and a half years without a precise purpose in a war that a real military power would have won in less than a week. This does not honor Russia. In fact, it makes it look” a paper tiger “. The long queues that form all the other things that are happening in their war economy, where most of their money is spent to fight Ukraine, which has a great spirit and becomes better, Ukraine could recover its country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even to go!

At the same time, he reiterated the US commitment to provide weapons to NATO so that the Alliance could transfer them to the Ukrainian army.

“Putin and Russia are in a very difficult economic situation, and this is the right time for Ukraine to act. In any case, I wish both countries. We will continue to provide NATO weapons to do what it wants with them.”, Trump concluded.

Zelenski's message to the UN

Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski warned on Wednesday, in the speech supported at the UN General Assembly, that NATO membership does not automatically guarantee Security, as international law and multilateral institutions have become so weak that they can no longer guarantee the survival of an attacked country, but he welcomed the US President, He said so far, suggested that Ukraine can regain all the territories occupied by Russia, AFP and EFE agencies have previously reported.

“If a nation wants peace, it must work on weapons. It is terrible, but this is reality. Not international law, not cooperation. Weapons are the ones who decide who survives,” Zelenski noted, after more than three and a half years with Russia.

For a country “there are no security guarantees” and it all depends on the alliances and weapons he manages to obtain, insisted the Ukrainian president, who also warned the dangers for the whole world involved by the current arms race and the evolution of the contemporary war.

He gave as an example of answers that the cautious reaction of NATO countries to the recent intrusions of some Russian drones and fighter jets of some member countries of this alliance is insufficient. Zelenski would like these countries to enter into battle and to break such targets.

The Ukrainian president also mentioned the so-called “coalition of the will” (or the coalition of volunteers), made up of over 30 countries that offer Ukraine military aid in the war with Russia and are willing to contribute in various ways to post-war security guarantees, which he has described as a “multilateral model” the powerlessness of the international institutions he denounced.

Zelenski also warned of the dangers of “the most destructive race of the armaments in the history of mankind”, which the various conflicts in progress have fed, and demanded immediate actions to stop and prevent situations as possible of the drones equipped with nuclear weapons.

“With every year with which this war continues, the weapons become even more deadly, and only Russia is to blame for this,” said the leader from Kiev, quoted by Agerpres.

In contrast, the Ukrainian president expressed his satisfaction with the radical position of US President Donald Trump after the discussion on Tuesday in New York.

Trump's new position on the recovery of the “whole Ukraine in its original form” is in contradiction with the one by which, in February, the US president argued Zelenski in the Oval Office that he does not make peace with Russia, warning that he has no “negotiation books” and not enough troops to continue the war.

“I had a good meeting with President Trump and we also talked to many other influential leaders. Together, we can change a lot,” Zelenski said in the UN stand. “Of course, we do our best to ensure that Europe offers (Ukraine) a real help and, obviously, count on the US,” the Ukrainian leader added.

The message sent by Trump on Tuesday encourages Ukraine, but without committing US support, and indirectly sends to Europeans that they have to contribute more money to the economic and military aid for Ukraine, especially by buying American weapons, have also noticed several commentators quoted by the Reuters news agency.