According to the main economist of ING Bank Śląski, Rafał Benecki, the Moody's Assessment shows that the “Extremely tolerant” agency accepts the fact that subsequent fiscal forecasts are getting worse – the deficit and public debt are growing. – This reduces the perspective, but – as we can see – it does not necessarily have to lead from a reduction in the rating – he pointed out in an interview with PAP.
Politicians must control expenses
Benecki noted, however, that The Polish rating assessment may be reduced in subsequent years if politicians fail to control expenses. He pointed out that the upcoming election campaign related to parliamentary elections in 2027 will not serve the savings policy, which in turn may lead to a reduction in rating.
– I think that the agency sent a strong signal to politicians that the lack of cooperation between the government and the president is not served by the economy nor the state – he said. He estimated that the change in Poland's rating perspective from stable to negative is a “yellow card for politicians” and a signal that “social time Bonanza is over.”
The economist noticed that The geopolitical situation did not significantly come to Moody's assessment. – It seems that only large attacks can reduce our credit credit or investment risk – the economist said.
According to Benecki, the high -term Polish rating agency at A2 level is influenced by the high economic strength of the country manifested, among others In the growth of real GDP by almost 3 percent “We grow faster all the time than our neighbors, especially compared to Hungary or Romania,” he noted.
See also: Not only a difficult fiscal situation, but also Russia's actions. Moody's decides about the rating of Poland
The economist added, however, that to maintain this growth, in addition to investments in the public sector financed from domestic and EU funds, it is necessary to increase enterprise investments. – Today's patriotic economic policy should be based not so much on social as the support of enterprises that must developthat the Polish economy could continue to grow quickly and finance arms expenses – he said.
The Ministry of Finance indicates an impasse of the government's reality with the president
The Ministry of Finance, commenting on the Moody's rating, pointed out that the agency justified its decision by the country's high economic strength. It has been added that “the Polish credit profile uses the still moderate burden of public debt in combination with solid creditworthiness indicators.”
According to the ministry, the decision to change the perspective to negative reflects the weaker perspective of fiscal indicators and public debt compared to previous expectations. The ministry also added that Moody's forecasts much larger budget deficits of the sector of government institutions and local governments while delaying the gradual fiscal consolidation, which will start in 2026. According to IMF perspective “.
Rating is a assessment of creditworthiness that is a measure of risk related to the investment in the issuer's debt papers. Rating is broadcast by an rating agency based on the assessment of economic, political and social risk. The main rating agencies are: Fitch, Moody's and S&P. The current Polish rating according to S&P is A-/A-2 for long-term and short-term obligations in foreign currency and A/A-1 for long-and short-term liabilities in national currency.
In the first week of September, the Fitch rating agency also confirmed the current rating of Poland, but changed its perspective to negative. The assessment is at the A-/F1 level for long-and short-term obligations in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long-term and short-term obligations in the national currency, respectively. The deterioration of the perspective was to result, among others from the increased state budget deficit in 2024-2025.
Of the three largest rating agencies, Poland's creditworthiness is the highest assessed. Credit assessments of the Polish Fitch and S&P are one level lower than Moody's.
