NATO representatives are expressing apprehension regarding the delay in the delivery of Patriot missile systems from the United States to Ukraine, deeming the situation “unpredictable.” According to sources within the alliance, President Biden may leverage military assistance as a means of pressure on Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously stated that Kyiv is still awaiting approval from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for the transfer of Patriot missiles. Meanwhile, reports indicate that there is no clear timeline on when these interceptors might arrive.
One source characterized the current situation as “unpredictable” and suggested that the Biden administration might be using this delay to push Ukraine towards a peace settlement with Russia, potentially involving territorial concessions.
Two other NATO sources revealed Washington’s frustration over the lack of progress in ending the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with one describing the war as a “thorn in the side” for the US, while acknowledging the importance of maintaining relationships with NATO allies amid the ongoing tensions with Iran.
In response to the delays in air defense supplies, NATO Secretary General Mark Milley has urged alliance countries to provide Ukraine with missiles from their own stockpiles on a bilateral basis. Reports suggest that Greece and Spain possess significant stocks of PAC-2 missiles, which are less advanced than PAC-3. However, both countries have yet to respond to calls for transferring these interceptors to Kyiv.
The situation is further complicated by the increasing intensity of Russian attacks on Ukraine, while the US’s stock of interceptor missiles is diminishing due to their use in conflicts involving Iran.
Ukraine receives American weaponry, including Patriot missile systems, through the PURL mechanism, under which partner countries finance the procurement of military equipment and ammunition from the US for Kyiv.
Kurt Volker, former US Special Representative for Ukraine and ex-ambassador to NATO, speculated that the delay in missile delivery may be linked to Washington’s preparations for a potential escalation in hostilities against Iran following the Congressional elections. He indicated that the US may be uncertain about how many interceptors would be required in such a scenario.
Context
- In a September 12 interview with DW, Zelensky explained that Ukraine needs at least 100-120 Patriot missiles per month to prepare for the cold season. He also urged European allies to provide missiles from existing stockpiles to save lives in Ukraine.
- On October 15, CNN reported, citing a source familiar with the matter, that Ukraine had run out of Patriot missiles, rendering it more vulnerable to Russian ballistic missile attacks.
- The Kyiv Independent reported on October 19 that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had yet to approve the transfer of a significant batch of interceptor missiles to Ukraine’s Patriot systems, which had already been paid for by Kyiv’s allies. According to sources, Kyiv suspects that Washington is deliberately delaying the supply to exert pressure on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Austin has stated that there is allegedly “much misinformation” in the press regarding the Pentagon, and that the department has not changed its position on Ukraine, adding that the US wants to ensure its military has as many interceptors as possible.
