Mikhail Kasyanov, a former Russian prime minister and now a vocal critic of the Kremlin, asserts that President Vladimir Putin realizes he made a mistake in invading Ukraine in 2022. However, Kasyanov believes Putin will persist in this course and is not prepared to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Living in exile in Riga, Latvia, since leaving Russia in 2022, Kasyanov shared insights during an interview with AFP in Paris. He remarked that Putin has committed an error “he cannot bring himself to acknowledge.” He emphasized that Putin was misled by his security services into believing Ukraine was weak.
Uncertain about the war concluding next year, Kasyanov noted that Putin is buoyed by high oil prices resulting from tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as disagreements between the United States and Europe on how to engage with the Kremlin over the ongoing conflict.
“Putin, of course, is rubbing his hands in glee,” Kasyanov stated. He believes that Putin thinks he can continue the war without making any concessions and is convinced he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine.
Kasyanov, who has been labeled a “foreign agent” by Moscow in 2023, claims he remains in contact with some members of the Russian elite. He described a climate of fear among the ruling class, where a significant majority wishes for the war to end. However, opinions diverge on whether they want it concluded with a victory, Putin’s defeat, or simply an end regardless of the outcome.
The West’s Greatest Mistake, According to Kasyanov
In light of Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons to protect the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, Kasyanov urged the West not to be intimidated by the Russian leader’s claims. He stated, “The greatest mistake of the West and Europeans is that they are too scared of Putin. He is not as powerful as he seems.”
Kasyanov further remarked that Putin fears the nuclear button more than many Europeans realize, suggesting that the Russian president wants outsiders to perceive him as a “psychopath” while he is actually a “highly calculating cynic.” He concluded that by escalating hybrid attacks, Putin is provoking the West into actions he could later exploit.
“What Putin wants is respect. He seeks to force all of Europe to accord him that respect,” Kasyanov asserted.
