A recent report titled “Secondary Shocks: Energy Security After the Hormuz Strait Crisis” outlines five crucial conclusions regarding the resilience of the global energy system, focusing specifically on Europe’s situation, diversification of supplies, and the need to prepare for future geopolitical shocks. The report emphasizes that disruptions in the Hormuz Strait underscore the sensitivity of the global energy system to geopolitical shocks. This ongoing crisis is noted as the most significant disruption to energy supplies in recent history, illustrating the world’s reliance on the stability of key shipping routes.
According to the authors, “Two-thirds of global energy trade passes through maritime chokepoints, one-third occurs between geopolitically distant partners, and the vast majority of the world’s population resides in energy-import dependent regions.” This highlights the interconnectedness of the global energy system, which can be disrupted by conflicts, political tensions, or trade disputes. Even local events can trigger a domino effect felt across continents. The report points out another striking fact: “95% of people live in regions dependent on energy imports.” Consequently, occurrences in critical transport hubs translate swiftly into fluctuations in energy prices, inflation, and supply security in Europe, Asia, and North America.
Experts from McKinsey suggest that the crisis surrounding the Hormuz Strait should not be seen as an isolated incident but rather as a warning. The world remains heavily dependent on international energy flows, and similar geopolitical risks may increase in the coming years. Remarkably, despite the scale of the shock, the energy system has shown greater resilience than expected. This resilience has been supported primarily by strategic stockpiles, alternative oil transport routes, and the rapid adjustment of global trade flows.
However, this resilience is not limitless: reserves are gradually depleting, and increasing pressure is being felt in refineries and the oil product market. The authors note, “Tensions in certain parts of the system, particularly within the refining sector, have led to partial demand restrictions.” While the world has managed the initial wave of the crisis, prolonged disruptions may intensify pressure on refineries and the market for finished petroleum products, where further bottlenecks could arise.
The initial phase of the crisis was marked by emergency interventions, with countries utilizing strategic reserves and activating alternative transport routes to mitigate short-term shortages. However, there is a noticeable shift towards long-term strategies. Governments are employing a wide range of tools—ranging from electrification and renewable energy development to increasing reserves and altering trade routes, as well as leveraging existing coal capacities and exploring new sources of oil and gas. If the actions currently underway or under consideration are realized, they could substantially mitigate the effects of future disruptions in the Hormuz Strait by 2030.
Yet, the experts stress that “considered actions will likely not replace supplies from the Gulf region under normal circumstances,” and their aim is to enhance the resilience of the energy system and create more alternatives for potential future crises. The report does not advocate for a single solution to ensure energy security; instead, it emphasizes the importance of building a portfolio of complementary solutions as a key conclusion. As McKinsey clearly states, “energy security is less about eliminating dependencies and more about managing them effectively.” The authors reject the notion that one type of technology or energy source can independently guarantee supply security.
They add that low-emission technologies could significantly reduce dependence on imported oil and gas over the long term, but implementation requires time and faces technological and economic constraints. Therefore, new supply sources, infrastructure, reserves, trading flexibility, and demand management remain equally vital. The report advocates for the development of a multilayered energy security system that includes new supply sources, infrastructure, strategic reserves, trading flexibility, energy efficiency, and demand management.
The increasing importance of energy security is also influencing the economic rationale behind investments. The last major conclusion from the report indicates that energy security is now viewed not only as a strategic issue but also as an economic one. “Energy security considerations change the economic justification for investments that enhance resilience,” the authors summarize. Solutions previously assessed mainly by cost are gaining attractiveness when their value for operational continuity and resilience to future shocks is taken into account. “Energy efficiency, supply diversification, and greater flexibility of sources, suppliers, and logistics can simultaneously mitigate risks and support long-term competitiveness,” they explain.
Practically, this means that energy security is increasingly seen as an investment in operational stability, risk reduction, and building a long-term competitive advantage. Companies and countries that proactively secure themselves against future shocks may gain a significant edge over those focusing solely on short-term efficiency.
The report also outlines specific recommendations for the European Union. First, the EU should strengthen short-term safety buffers, particularly refining product reserves and gas storage ahead of the winter season. Second, further diversification of energy sources and supply routes is necessary, including the development of LNG infrastructure and alternative transport corridors. Third, Europe should accelerate the electrification of its economy and the development of domestic low-emission energy sources. The rise in electric vehicle sales and new initiatives supporting the energy transition illustrate a direction that can strengthen energy security while reducing dependence on imported fuels.
Another critical component is maintaining the flexibility of the electricity system by developing energy storage, transmission networks, and demand management mechanisms. During the transition period, this may also involve retaining some existing conventional assets. The report emphasizes the significance of energy efficiency in households, transportation, and industry, as every unit of energy saved reduces reliance on imports. Nevertheless, the overarching message for Europe remains consistent with that for the entire world: resilience must be built as a portfolio of solutions rather than a single strategy.
