Published on Monday by the Central Statistical Office, data on retail sales in July turned out to be much better than the forecasts and the result of the June. In fixed prices, it has grown by 4.8 percent year on year and 4.4 percent month to month.
“This is the third best result this year and one of the best in recent years. In the first seven months of the year, retail sales grew on average by 3.3 percent, which is exactly at the pace with which it closed the previous year. However, the end of the year should, due to the low base, bring the acceleration of sales and an even better year -round result” – Bank Pekao's analysts pointed out.
“The sale of permanent goods, in supermarkets and clothing stores, has improved primarily. Stronger July data appear after disappointing statistics from June, which in our opinion shows that it shows that The actual trend of retail sales growth is about 3-4 percent. R/RW of the annual scale, and therefore a solid result, which supports our forecasts that in the coming quarters private consumption will remain a refuge of GDP growth” – wrote economists of Santander Bank Polski.
According to PKO BP analysts, the sale of two speeds can be seen in the data structure for July. On the one hand, the sale of durable goods, including furniture, RTV and household appliances, increased very strongly (15.3 percent y/y, 14.9 percent m/m) and cars (10.7 percent y/y), Thus, categories, which also in the previous months grew strongly in terms of y/y. This confirms the reconstruction of the demand for home furnishings with a stable growing demand for cars (although definitely below levels from the second half of 2024). In July, the sale of clothing and footwear (14.7 percent y/y) also grew. On the other hand, it slowed down the increase in sales of drugs and cosmetics (4.9 percent y/y), press and books (3.0 percent y/y) and fuels (0.7 percent y/y), while the dynamics of food sales was negative (–0.4 percent y/y), though higher than a month earlier. The decreases in the Other category (−5.5 percent y/y) also deepened – they wrote.
“After the disappointing result of the June sales, there were fears that this may signal a change in an earlier upward trend, including in the field of durable use, which has been out of the beginning of the second quarter of 2025. We assigned a lower result of June change in the structure of consumer expenditure from goods towards services (including tourist ones and restaurants) due to the long weekend of God's bogy. The July data is consistent with our hypothesis and suggest that at the beginning of the third quarter households are still showing purchasing, and consumption will still be a key factor in GDP growth. In 2025, we expect an economic increase of 3.5 percent ” – assessed the economists of ING Bank Śląski. In 2024, GDP increased by 2.9 percent.
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“Despite the slowing dynamics of nominal salaries, improving consumer moods and the perspective of interest rate reductions should support the further increase in consumption. After the set of economic data for July, our forecast 3.7 percent of GDP growth throughout 2025 remains as real” – wrote the economists of Alior Bank.
“The July sales data confirms the stable increase in consumptionand in connection with a solid increase in industrial production, they support the scenario of further revival in the third quarter. Given the acceleration of GDP growth to 3.4 percent r/rw II quarter, We can assume that the entire 2025 will end with an increase around 3.5 percent. (with a possible risk for the forecast tilted up), with an analogous increase in private consumption, “wrote PKO BP economists.
Black horse and half empty
Economists of the Bank of Environmental Protection expect to maintain the dynamics of household consumption (i.e. private consumption, which – in addition to selling goods – also includes services) in the second half of the year above 3.0 percent. y/y, after the assumed reflection of this dynamics up to 3.6 percent In the second quarter with 2.5 percent in the first quarter.
Bank Pekao experts reminded that they have defined private consumption several times as the Black Horse 2025. “You can look at it in two ways. First, from three indicators of economic activity Sales looks definitely the best. Secondly, unexpectedly, a good result of consumption is above all relatively to the expectations and places that was devoted to it in forecasts and macro scenarios for this year, “they wrote, reminding that consumption was to grow by 3 percent this year, as in 2024. Meanwhile – as they noted – a decrease in inflation by about 1 percentage point consumers and created a space for accelerating the growth of consumption.
“From the point of view of GDP forecasts for the whole year, however, this is a situation of the type Half -empty glass. Consumption is imported and producers and their employees will not necessarily gain acceleration on its acceleration (in other words, it will not necessarily generate added value in the country). With the stagnation of foreign demand and zero work factor in economic growth, the Polish economy knocks now in a speed limit determined by national economic growth engines ” – added the analysts of Bank Pekao.
For now, economists of Bank Millennium are refraining from the revision of their GDP dynamics forecasts despite the positive surprise of July Dans about retail and industrial production. They still assume GDP growth in 2025 by 3.4-3.5 percent
“We will wait for the next readings to make a possible correction. It is worth noting that Due to the calendar effects, data on sales and industrial production for August may have a slightly weaker overtones. However, the assessment of the resistance of the economy to external factors and expectations regarding the improvement of activity in the third quarter in the Polish economy should not change, “they wrote.
