According to an internal NATO survey accessed by Politico, fewer than half of Americans believe that NATO would come to their aid in the event of an attack. This survey, conducted ahead of the NATO summit set for July 7-8 in Ankara, highlights growing concerns amidst repeated criticisms from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the military alliance.
The survey revealed that only 43% of American adults expressed confidence that NATO would uphold its commitment to assist the U.S. in case of an attack, marking the lowest level of trust among the 32 NATO allies. In contrast, the average support across the alliance stands at 57%. This decline in confidence suggests a waning public trust in NATO, echoing Trump’s narrative over recent years.
NATO allies have invoked Article 5 only once in the alliance’s history, following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, when they activated the solidarity clause in support of the United States.
Trump’s Repeated Attacks
Trump has consistently criticized NATO allies who are hesitant to provide support for the U.S. military efforts against Iran, labeling the alliance a “paper tiger” and asserting that European nations would not assist if called upon. He has also made controversial statements regarding the annexation of Greenland, questioned Canada’s independence, doubted U.S. commitment to Article 5, and dismissed the contributions of allied soldiers in Afghanistan, suggesting they lagged behind on the front lines.
Last week, Trump intensified his criticism of NATO ahead of the summit in Ankara. “It is ridiculous for the U.S. to continue on this unilateral path when the relationship is not reciprocal,” he stated on Friday.
Declining Confidence in NATO
The data from the NATO survey do not directly compare to previous years. However, sources indicated that the average confidence level across the alliance has decreased by approximately eight percentage points since 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in the U.S. trust levels.
Despite these concerns, the survey shows that a majority of respondents across the alliance still support NATO, with 62% stating that membership reduces the likelihood of an attack, and 65% expressing willingness to vote for their country’s continued membership. Additionally, 72% believe that the transatlantic link is important.
Increasing Favorability Toward Moscow
The survey also indicated a shift in public opinion, with respondents from NATO countries now exhibiting more favorable attitudes toward Russia and China. Notably, 17% of citizens in NATO countries reported a favorable opinion of Russia, up from 12% the previous year, with the highest support found in Montenegro, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Turkey, and Greece.
Anticipation for the Ankara Summit
NATO leaders are scheduled to convene in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday, amidst pressure from Trump for European countries to increase their defense spending and following months of transatlantic tensions. Trump’s frequent criticisms, along with announcements regarding troop withdrawals from Europe and adjustments to the U.S. military presence on the continent, have fueled uncertainty within the alliance.
The Trump administration has urged Europe to boost defense investments and take greater responsibility for continental defense. Officials expect leaders to focus on progress toward defense spending goals, boosting industrial defense production, and implementing the “burden-sharing” shift from the U.S. to Europe.
European leaders aim to demonstrate their commitment to the pledges made at last year’s Hague summit, which included allocating 5% of GDP for defense and related measures by 2035. “By 2025, European allies and Canada are set to increase their investments in essential defense requirements by over $139 billion,” states a draft summit declaration consulted by Reuters. “We are building the future: a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO—a modernized Alliance. European allies and Canada, in collaboration with the United States, are taking greater responsibility for the Alliance’s defense,” the prepared statement declares.
