The most powerful woman in Russia has disappeared. “The Beginning of the Earthquake” [OPINIA]
Elvira Nabiullina — the head of the Russian central bank and one of the most influential figures of the local regime — has not appeared in public for over a week. Normally, there would be nothing strange about this. However, in the case of a woman who firmly holds the helm of the Russian economy, this is not a simple absence.
She missed several important events, including the prestigious International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg and an important financial conference. What is most suspicious, however, is that she did not even appear at an important meeting with Vladimir Putin, during which the president discussed inflation and interest rates – exactly the topics for which Nabiullina is responsible.
Both the Russian central bank and the Kremlin agree that there is no secret behind her absence – she simply fell ill and is on sick leave. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tried to calm the situation, stating that people sometimes get sick, it is completely normal and should not be a reason for any conspiracy theories.
However, in the high-level Russian political environment, Nabiullina's mysterious absence caused a wave of speculation. Too many things don't add up. No one revealed what exactly was wrong with Nabiullina and when she would return to work. Her public appearance is scheduled for early July. When her name suddenly disappeared from the list of speakers at a recent economic forum in St. Petersburg, there were whispers that she wanted to avoid unpleasant debates about the direction of the Russian economy.
Another version said that Nabiullina went to the funeral of the deceased advisor, but no one saw her there. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that even her closest deputies did not appear at the meeting with Putin.
Putin's protective shield
The sudden disappearance of Elvira Nabiullina from public life immediately revived discussions about whether she intended to resign from her position. He is serving his third term in office, and Russian law does not allow for a fourth term. Her mandate will officially expire in June 2027. Russian independent media have even started to mention the names of three potential successors among high-ranking officials and bankers. However, there is also the possibility that the Kremlin will simply change the law and allow Nabiullina to remain in charge of the bank.
Why did such panic break out around one official? The change in the leadership of the central bank is a huge event in Russia, because this institution has almost unlimited power over the financial market. The Russian economic portal The Bell compared it to a super-government that simultaneously sets road traffic regulations, imposes fines, issues driving licenses and at the same time controls gasoline prices. While in the West these powers are distributed among several independent institutions, in Russia everything is concentrated in the hands of one person – Elvira Nabiullina.
However, Nabiullina's power and influence are not based only on solid institutional foundations, but on the absolute trust of Vladimir Putin himself. It is this favor that has so far allowed it to maintain real independence and fend off harsh attacks from Russian entrepreneurs and representatives of the real economy. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, they have been unable to stand it because it keeps interest rates extremely high, which they believe stifles and inhibits domestic business.
If Nabiullina had indeed left her post, Russia would face a major shock. Her possible successor would be in an unenviable position. If he continued his strict policy of high interest rates, he would have to face enormous pressure and criticism, but without the political support and authority that Nabiullina enjoyed with Putin. On the other hand, if the new president succumbed to business pressure and sharply cut interest rates, he would risk Russian macroeconomic stability collapsing like a house of cards.
