Will the 39th time be lucky in the Iran war? The signal given by Tehran and the divergent versions regarding the agreement with the US
The United States and Iran signaled on Friday that a deal to end their war was close, with a senior US administration official saying both sides had agreed on a text and that Washington expected to sign an initial agreement in the coming days, according to Reuters.
But soon after, the United States said it had shot down several Iranian drones targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, despite optimism expressed a few hours earlier by both sides about a peace deal, writes AFP.
“Iran has launched several attack drones with the aim of striking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” the US Middle East Command (CENTCOM) wrote on X. “US forces have shot them all down in the last few hours and maritime traffic in the strait remains fluid,” CENTCOM added.
The incident came as Tehran, the Pakistani mediator and Washington expressed optimism that after weeks of laborious negotiations a deal could be reached to end the Middle East war.
Differences between the agreement presented by the two parties
But the versions of a possible compromise presented by the Iranian media and Washington show important differences.
“As soon as the final stages of our negotiations are completed, this agreement will be signed and announced,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on state television late Friday. “This could happen in the next few days. I have high hopes,” the Tehran official said.
“Iran is the winner of the war with the United States,” he said on state television.
Araghchi stated that the draft agreement provides for the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports and a new management of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Until a full agreement is reached on all issues, it will not be possible to say with certainty that common ground has been found with the United States,” he said on Saturday.
The same hope was expressed by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, the main negotiator in this conflict. “Peace has never been so close as today,” said Shehbaz Sharif.
And in Washington, a senior official put the likelihood of a framework agreement opening a 60-day period of technical talks at “80-85 percent,” but “not 100 percent.” “The finish line has not yet been crossed,” he warned on condition of anonymity.
Where will the agreement be signed?
Switzerland has already offered to host a possible signing, while a G7 summit attended by Donald Trump is set to begin on Monday in the French town of Evian, near Geneva. But Tehran has said that once finalised, the memorandum of understanding will be signed “remotely”.
Markets, in turn, are betting on such an outcome, with the price of oil falling below the $90 per barrel mark on Friday.
The conflict, sparked by US-Israeli strikes on February 28 before a ceasefire took effect on April 8, has thrown the Middle East into chaos and killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, and rocked the world economy.
US President Donald Trump, who has already announced an imminent deal 39 times, according to a CNN tally, is scrambling to find a solution to this unpopular war as mid-term elections in November and the World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, are in full swing.
The White House leader posted an angry message on his Truth Social network on Friday: “The terms (of the deal) that Iran leaked to the lying media have NOTHING TO DO with the terms we agreed to in writing.”
“They are people without honor. It is impossible to negotiate with them in good faith,” Trump wrote.
Iran's Mehr news agency on Friday published what it described as a 14-point draft protocol, with conditions such as maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, the right to enrich uranium, the quick release of $24 billion in Iranian funds frozen abroad.
Divergent versions
Washington, in turn, presented a completely different version of the text. The compromise must, according to the American official, lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route for the world trade in hydrocarbons.
It must also lead to the “dismantling” of Iran's nuclear program and allow the United States to recover highly enriched uranium, which would be “destroyed in place” and then “removed” from the country.
But Abbas Araghchi recommended on Friday the dilution on Iranian soil of its stockpiles of enriched uranium to 60%.
Diluting uranium to less than 5%, far from the 90% needed to make a nuclear bomb, would greatly remove the threat of military enrichment.
Tehran denies that it wants to acquire atomic weapons, as the United States and Israel accuse it.
Lebanon, another deadlock
Finally, on the issue of assets, “the Iranians will not receive any money and the funds will not be released just by signing an agreement or attending a meeting,” US Vice President JD Vance insisted on X.
This point is critical for Iran, after decades of sanctions are suffocating its economy.
Another major sticking point is the Lebanese front. According to Washington, the deal under discussion with Iran does indeed include Lebanon, as Tehran has demanded, while the United States has always said it wants to deal with the matter separately.
Lebanon was drawn into the war on March 2 when Hezbollah attacked Israeli territory in support of Iran. Since then, Israel has been bombing the neighboring country, saying it wants to “eliminate” the Shiite movement. The airstrikes caused more than 3,700 deaths.
