Behind the scenes of the World Cup. Cracks between Mexico and the US. “On a Knife's Edge”
Employees at the Mexican Embassy in Washington were excited after halftime in Mexico's Thursday afternoon game against South Africa.
Forward Julian Quinones scored in the first nine minutes. The mood at the embassy event was high, with mini burritos, beer and, as a tribute to bilateral relations, McDonald's hamburgers and tacos.
Talking to Mexican officials, diplomats and business leaders, one senses a mood that reflects the current state of bilateral relations between Mexico and the United States as both countries, along with Canada, begin six weeks of World Cup festivities.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum — who was not present at the opening game — has won praise on both sides of the border for her work behind the scenes to build a solid relationship with President Donald Trump. It does so despite very different political orientations and persistent frictions over issues of migration, drug trafficking and trade.
Additionally, Sheinbaum faces significant internal challenges — and they were on full display Thursday outside historic Azteca Stadium. Hundreds of protesters gathered there demanding pay raises for teachers and more funds for the search for 130,000. people missing under the so-called war on drugs. These people clashed with the police and threw cones and other objects towards the security zone.
In what should be a high point for the entire continent – as North America unites in hosting the FIFA World Cup – these relationships face their greatest challenge. Tensions are growing over the future of the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada, the growing impasse over the extradition of several activists of the Morena party (led by Claudia Sheinbaum) – including the governor of Sinaloa – and Trump's threats to deal with drugs “imported by land” through Mexico.
“The situation is on a knife edge,” says Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico's ambassador to the US during the Bush-Obama administration. — The paradox is that all this is happening just as the FIFA World Cup begins, which should be an occasion to celebrate North America's potential and talk about its future.
Mutual benefits
The tension in bilateral relations beyond the World Cup is existential for Mexico – about 80%. of this country's exports go to the United States. However, it is also very important for the USA, for which Mexico is its largest trading partner. In 2025, bilateral trade exceeded USD 872 billion. (PLN 3.2 trillion), which is approximately 15 percent. all goods imported into the USA.
This integration reaches deep into U.S. supply chains, including sectors such as automotive and electronics. This means that anything that seriously destabilizes this relationship is bad economic news for the United States.
For now, however, the concern is largely one-sided – Trump's entourage remains optimistic about U.S.-Mexico relations, even in the face of real turmoil. Two CIA officers were killed in an April accident in Mexico's Chihuahua state, revealing that U.S. intelligence agents there were working hand-in-hand with Mexican investigators — without federal government approval, Mexican officials say. Just over a week later, the Sinaloa indictments emerged.
– This is a critical point. “But I think if you asked people working on this, they would say that compared to where we were in the past, security cooperation with Mexico under Sheinbaum is actually quite good,” says Alex Gray, a former senior National Security Council official in the first Trump administration. — I think, all things considered, the situation isn't bad.
Even the originators of hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America — the decision was made in 2018, during Trump's first presidential term — agree that cracks in the relationship between the United States and Mexico were a more serious problem eight years ago.
North American soccer officials told POLITICO that rapprochement between the United States and Mexico was not easy at a time when Trump was calling NAFTA (the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement) – the predecessor of USMCA – a “disaster” and demanding that Mexico cover the costs of building a border wall.
White House aides have praised Sheinbaum's cooperation on everything from preventing the spread of Ebola before the World Cup to fighting drug trafficking. A senior White House official, who asked to remain anonymous, calls U.S. relations with Mexico good in an interview with POLITICO.
“There were shared responsibilities, like the whole Ebola thing, right? We cooperated with them [Meksykiem] and Canada to ensure proper verification of persons entering these countries. Of course we cooperate with her [Sheinbaum] also in terms of fighting cartels on many fronts, so it's good, he says.
The Mexican Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.
Walking a fine line
However, Mexican officials view the development of these relations with a certain cognitive dissonance – they see progress in some areas, crisis in others. For example, US Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin's meeting with Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico last month was seen as a positive step in the bilateral relationship, particularly in the security cooperation that underpins it.
However, this progress on other fronts is being put to the test. The indictments against Morena create internal difficulties for Sheinbaum, which is seeking “overwhelming and irrefutable evidence” before taking action against Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha Moya and nine other current and former Mexican officials who have been charged with drug trafficking and weapons offenses by the U.S. Department of Justice.
Trade talks between the two countries have also been quite successful – so much so that both sides were even conducting them without Canada's involvement. On Wednesday, however, Trump introduced a new dose of uncertainty, declaring that he “does not intend to extend” the agreement and rejecting the notion that the United States needs any of its neighbors. These countries will almost certainly not have time to renew their agreement before July 1, and a third round of talks is scheduled in Mexico for the week of July 20.
This uncertainty has caused supporters of the bilateral relationship to anxiously analyze Trump's public appearances for any signs of his irritation with Sheinbaum.
— From what I see, it's not just about one relationship, there are several topics. On the one hand, we have something very good, and on the other, something that is not going well. Of course, we are trying to create a good relationship that will also make other individual aspects of cooperation good, says Enrique Perret, managing director of the US-Mexico Foundation. — But we don't have that good, overarching relationship right now. This is what we miss.
So far, Trump and Sheinbaum have yet to meet at the White House. Some south of the border see it as a carefully considered move by Mexico's president to avoid taking unnecessary risks and avoid the kind of Oval Office spectaculars that have become common in Trump's dealings with world leaders over the past year.
So far, they have only met in person once – during the official group draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in December. Will they appear together as fans at any games in the coming weeks? We'll see.
