The Tomac government, without a clear majority: political calculations, tensions between parties and the specter of anticipations
While PSD seems willing to support the version of a technical government built around Eugen Tomac, PNL, USR and UDMR send signals of reserve or even opposition. The uncertainty of these days reveals not only the lack of a clear majority in Parliament, but also the tensions between the pro-Western parties, the electoral calculations related to possible early elections and the rise of AUR in the polls.
In parallel, the political deadlock risks affecting essential files of the next period, such as the implementation of the PNRR, the wage reform and the process of Romania's accession to the OECD.
What chances does the Tomac Government have. Photo: Inquam Photos/O.Ganea
“Adevărul” spoke with political analyst Vlad Adamescu, who believes that the government proposed by Eugen Tomac will not succeed in obtaining a parliamentary majority. In his opinion, the nominations published by the sources tilt the balance in favor of the PSD, and this will have a decisive influence on the vote in the Parliament.
“From my point of view, it is more towards the wing of the Social Democratic Party. We also see that there is a greater interest on the part of the PSD to influence the government at the moment, while the PNL and the USR rather want to remain in the opposition, that is, not to take over the government completely.
That's why I don't even think, at the moment, that this government will pass Parliament. I saw the statements of the USR, I saw the PNL statements, I also saw the skepticism of the UDMR regarding this government. So, at the moment, it seems that the only ones willing to vote for the Tomac government are the social-democratic party and the various sovereignist particles that have emerged around the PSD, which together, of course, fail to reach the majority of 233 votes”.
“Georgescu said yesterday or today that he is asking for the suspension of President Nicușor Dan”
AUR's strategy seems to be centered on its own political interest. The polls currently give it a strong position, and the scenario of early elections is promoted as a form of pressure on the traditional parties.
“I deeply doubt that AUR would vote for this government or any government proposed by Nicușor Dan at the moment, especially since now this PR campaign has started with “we want the suspension of the president”. I heard that Georgescu also said yesterday or today that he demands the suspension of President Nicușor Dan, that he is an illegitimate president and so on, the standard rhetoric.
From their point of view – and now I put myself in their shoes – the strategy is to vote nothing, to continue to oppose, to say that they voted together “for the Romanians”, that the others brought austerity and so on, and to insist on the solutions they propose: early elections and suspension, both at the same time.
I deeply doubt that there could, who knows, be negotiations on an individual level, with some AUR MPs jumping from one boat to another. And they being very good in the polls, I think that, at the party level, now everyone listens to the boss, because it is clear that he brought them to this percentage. Who would leave a party that's rising in the polls and doesn't have to do much this time but criticize the policy mistakes of the president or any government?
I think the people around him also tell him this: that there are votes. Of course there are voices, especially in the PNL, who would at least be willing to vote for any version that comes from the president, but I don't think, at the moment, that there are enough votes or enough critical mass there to cause this rift within the PNL that the president was counting on from the first. When he thought he could restore the coalition without Bolojan, with someone else from the PNL”says the analyst.
PNRR the priority of the Government Photo: Virgil Popescu
Laws to be voted on by August, check measure
The package of laws related to PNRR contains nine key laws on which the collection of over 7 billion euros from European funds depends. Romania cannot afford not to collect them, but the political deadlock could have repercussions in a short time.
“I think that some compromises will still be reached when it comes to salaries, for example, but, as you also said, there are amendments submitted by everyone. What could happen is that we have the salary law and the European Commission does not agree with it, in which case we lose that money anyway. In this case, we lose that money from the PNRR anyway.
I think the most realistic assumption we have to make is that we will lose a part of the PNRR and see what we can save punctually, including the wage law”says the analyst.
He also adds that, in the light of the latest statements, the UDMR is not willing to make compromises when it comes to ministries:
“We see that PNL and USR are coordinating because they imagine that an electoral pole will form around them and I think that together they can get 25-30% in parliamentary elections, either early or on time. And the UDMR wants to be directly at the levers, at least in Development”
The anticipated scenario was not supposed to be on the public agenda in 2026
The discussion about early elections is starting to appear more and more often in the public space, although the current Parliament has not even consumed half of its mandate. Traditionally, the major parties avoid such scenarios for fear of an unpredictable vote, but the current political deadlock is testing the confidence of the parties, who appear to have rushed a no-confidence vote.
“He may have been in a hurry, but he can also rely on what Nicușor Dan said, in the sense that he is categorically opposed to early elections. Although I would not trust Nicușor Dan's statement so much, because a moment may come when he will have no choice: the second government and the proposed third prime minister will fail, and he will simply be forced to call early elections.
I think they trusted this statement, which also has logic. However, the president ran against an AUR candidate and built this Western discourse, as he wants to call it. Would it be in his best interest to bring the AUR into government at the moment or call for an early election as the AUR rises? I think that's what the parties were based on, but we might also have surprises. We shouldn't rule out early elections. Of course it never happened and it's sure to be hard to get there, but I think this fear of anticipation might count for the second nomination, if there will still be the next Government”concludes the analyst.
