Deloitte study: the global insurance market is entering a phase of accelerated expansion. Estimated 150% increase in gross written premiums by 2035
The global insurance market is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with gross written premiums expected to advance 150% by 2035, amid increasing demand for protection, expansion into underserved markets, and the digital transformation of the industry, according to Deloitte's study “The future of insurance 2035. Anticipating change, building resilience, and securing long-term relevance.”
On life and health insurance segment (Life & Health), the market is expected to grow by approximately 3% per year until 2035, when it could reach $4.8 trillion, after in 2024 it registered the strongest advance in the last decade (5% increase in gross written premiums), driven mainly by products with a savings component. At the same time, health insurance are expected to grow faster than life expectancy amid rising medical costs and increasing pressure on public health systems.
On general insurance segment (Property & Casualty)the market has doubled in size over the past two decades, reaching $2.4 trillion at the end of last year, and is expected to double again by 2040. Demand will be fueled by two major directions – growth in property insurance, amid growing risks from natural catastrophes, and the amplification of complex business risks, from cyber threats to supply chain disruptions and challenges medium.
Global insurance market growth will be sustained but uneven, with the pace stabilizing in advanced economies and accelerating in emerging markets, driven by the expansion of the middle class, rapid adoption of digital technology and reform of social protection systems.
“The rapid advance of the insurance market globally reflects a structural change in the risk profile and demand for protection solutions. As risks become more diverse and complex, so do customer expectations, both in terms of coverage and how to access products. In this context, companies that invest early in digitization, adapt their distribution models and develop relevant products will be better positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities of the next decade.” Including the modernization of financial reporting processes, in the context of new and increasingly stringent regulatory requirements, can be managed more efficiently with the help of technology and advanced data analysis, while generating transparency and higher quality of information”, stated Claudiu Ghiurluc, Partner, Audit and Related Services, Deloitte Romania.
Population aging is one of the trends that will transform the global insurance market. According to the study, by 2030, one in six people in the world will be over 60, which will generate a growing demand for protective products and medical services, especially for people with chronic conditions.
Another trend identified by the study is the deepening of protection gapsin the context of the expansion of the global middle class from approximately two billion to 3.5 billion people by 2030, mostly in Asia. Thus, insurers will face pressure to serve high-risk communities, frequently exposed to natural catastrophes and underinsured, which are also affected by inequalities in income distribution, limited access to financial services and low levels of adequate protection.
Lifestyle change it will also influence developments in the insurance market. Younger generations are rethinking asset ownership (in Canada, for example, the share of 18- to 34-year-olds who own a home fell from 47% in 2021 to 26% in 2024), and consumers want flexible, customized, not standardized products.
At the same time, rethinking mobility will change the insurance industry. As the market of car-sharing grows and private car ownership becomes less attractive in urban environments, insurers will need to redefine their risk assessment models, adapting to on-demand mobility services as an alternative to owning a personal car.
Expanding the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and technology is another trend identified by the study. The global device market wearable is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2029, and the Internet of Things (IoT), sensors and continuous data streams combined with AI will transform the way insurers assess risk.
In a context increasingly influenced by frequent geopolitical crises, macroeconomic tensions and major disruptions, such as supply chain disruptions or cyber attacks, global instability is becoming the norm, and adaptability and resilience are emerging as key competitive advantages for insurers.
Also, climate change is a long-term pressure factor. If current warming estimates hold, the economic impact of climate change is estimated to reach 7-10% of global GDP by 2050. The increasing frequency of extreme events will force companies to accelerate sustainability innovation, both to meet regulatory requirements and to meet rising consumer expectations.
The study also shows that, in the context where approximately 48% of the global population does not benefit from basic forms of social protection, the public and private sectors will work together to reduce existing gaps in areas such as health, social services or resilience to extreme weather phenomena, especially for vulnerable communities.
“In Romania, the global evolution highlights the potential for the development of the insurance industry. The low level of insurance penetration indicates insufficient risk coverage, while the demand for protection products – including in areas such as health, agriculture or cyber risks – remains under-exploited. In parallel, digitization accelerates the change in consumer behavior and reduces access barriers. Insurers who will succeed in simplifying the offer and adapting it to the specifics of the local market can support faster growth and more sustainable of the market in the next period”, he declared Ana Șerban, Director of Actuarial and Insurance Solutions, Deloitte Romania.
The study analyzes the potential evolution of the global insurance market over the period 2024–2035, covering life and health as well as non-life segments, and provides a broad perspective on the main changes that will transform the industry. The analysis is based on market data, macroeconomic projections and the opinions of global leaders in risk management.
Deloitte provides global audit, tax and legal advisory, consulting, financial advisory and risk management services to approximately 90% of the Fortune Global 500® companies and thousands of private sector companies. The firm's experts help deliver measurable and lasting results that help build confidence in the capital markets that enable companies to transform, thrive and pave the way for a stronger economy, a fairer society and a sustainable world. With a history of more than 180 years, Deloitte covers more than 150 countries and territories. Its objective is to create a visible impact in society with the help of approximately 470,000 professionals worldwide.
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Article supported by Deloitte Romania
