The lowest forecasts were for inflation of 3.4%. in May, and the consensus indicated its significant increase to 3.7%. Economists are astonished when they see how much inflation really was and what happened to food prices that, thanks to them, inflation dropped to 3.1% instead of increasing.
The first of them have already started correcting their forecasts. Erste BP analysts believe that it is now increasingly likely that inflation will remain close to 3.0%. all year round. They previously forecast 3.5 percent. average annual inflation.
“The scale of the surprise prompted us to revise down the entire CPI path for 2026. It now seems increasingly likely that inflation will remain close to 3% throughout the year (provided that the CPN program is maintained until the end of 2026. and the gradual decline in oil prices below $90), which could limit the tendency of the Monetary Policy Council to consider interest rate increases“- wrote in the Erste BP report.
Erste BP economists point out that the attributable food inflation reading was weaker than expected in May primarily the drop in vegetable pricessupported by high harvests in 2025.
“However, we would like to point out that the risk for food prices in the coming months remains upwards, especially given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, the Central Statistical Office's assessment of this year's harvest published today indicates a possible pro-inflationary impact of food prices in the second half of 2026.” – it was written in the bank's report.
“Difficult weather conditions (drought, spring frosts) worsened the condition of cereals, rapeseed, vegetables and fruit, creating a risk of weaker crops and limited supply,” it added.
In core inflation, economists said, the monthly increase was broadly similar to that seen in May 2025, when there was a downside surprise in transport, communications and recreation prices.
“We cannot confirm whether the same components were responsible for the current result, but if so, it may indicate a change in the seasonal pattern,” the economists note.
GDP and interest rate forecasts
A few days earlier, the same Erste economists published forecasts for Poland. According to them GDP will grow by 3.6% this year and slow down to 2.9% next year. rdr.
The reference rate is to remain at 3.75%. until at least the first quarter of 2027. The PLN/EUR exchange rate is to remain at PLN 4.25
However, they predict increase in the unemployment rate. In April, according to the Central Statistical Office, it was 6 percent, but by the end of the year the forecast is 6.2 percent, and by the end of 2027 – 6.4 percent.
Unfortunately, the country's debt is expected to continue. The forecast indicates 64.5 percent. general government debt to GDP at the end of 2026, but in 2027 it is to be 68.5%. This is definitely above the EU criteria set for us (60%), but there is also a risk of exceeding the constitutional threshold. This is set at 60 percent, but the other definition of debt taken into account (PDP) is lower than the general government one by 10.8 percentage points. According to this forecast, at the end of 2027 we would have 57.7%. GDP of PDP debt, which would already trigger prudential mechanisms. This will be an election year.
