The new US GDP reading turned out to be a big disappointment, although on the other hand it indirectly reduces the pressure on increasing interest rates. “Only” 44 percent. investors in Fed rate contracts on the Chicago Stock Exchange are betting on an increase of at least 0.25 percentage points. until December this yearthis morning Polish time it was 53.9 percent.
Annualized GDP dynamics amounted to 1.6 percent in the first quarter., although the first reading reported that the increase was 2%. The last time the reading was higher (+4.4%) was in the third quarter of 2025 and lower (+0.5%) in 4Q25.
US GDP dynamics including preliminary data
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Comparison with European data
The annualized indicator is not comparable to what is usually published by Eurostat or the Central Statistical Office. In Europe, the corresponding quarters of the previous year are compared, and here the dynamics to the previous quarter are checked and converted into annual data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also presented this “European” approach and, according to it, the American economy grew by 2.6 percent. year-on-year in the first quarter.
For comparison, the EU economy grew by only 1%. y/y, and Poland – at a rate of 3.4%.
In this approach, individual consumption increased by 2.3% in real terms. y/y, private investments decreased by 1.4%. y/y, exports increased by 4.2% and imports decreased by 5.1%, and government consumption increased by 0.1%.
The decline in private investments was related to the reduction in residential investments (-5.1% yoy) and investments in non-residential buildings (-6.1% yoy).
Government consumption was rescued by state and local spending (+2% YoY), while federal spending fell 2.9%. rdr.
Americans' personal disposable income increased by 0.7%. rdr.
The inflation used to calculate GDP was 3.2%. y/y compared to 2.4 percent a year earlier.
