28 May 18:20
For businesses and citizens, the long-term benchmark for the key rate is in the range of 8–9%.
This was stated by First Deputy President – Chairman of the Board of VTB Dmitry Pyanov in an interview with TASS before SPIEF-26.
“Any key rate above 9% will mean overpayment relative to the normal level. It may be acceptable for some economic players and unacceptable for others. But if a person and an economic agent think long-term, then they need to wait for the key rate of 8–9%“, explained the top manager. He added that until the inflation target is achieved, rates will objectively be increased.
According to the updated medium-term forecast of the Bank of Russia, in 2026 the average key rate is expected to be 14–14.5% per annum. In 2027, the regulator predicts its reduction to the range of 8–10%, and in 2028 – to 7.5–8.5% per annum.
The Central Bank assumes that, against the backdrop of tightened monetary policy, inflation will return to the target level of around 4% by 2027. Maintaining a higher rate in the coming years, according to the regulator, is necessary to consolidate disinflationary trends and stabilize prices.
