Similar assessments are made in the longer, five-year perspective. They, too, are deteriorating for the fifth month in a row and have approached the line separating pessimism from optimism. The current rating is the worst since March 2022, the first poll after the war began. This was the last time the percentage of positive and negative responses was the same.
People feel the economic situation is deterioratingwhich entered the recession phase. GDP in the first quarter was 0.2 percent. lower than a year earlier – this is the first decline in three years.
At the beginning of the year, prices skyrocketed for a reason VAT increases, and assessments of their economic and personal financial situation, as well as their prospects, began to deteriorate rapidly. In April, for the first time since December 2022, more negative than positive answers were received when asked about expectations regarding changes in their financial situation in the coming year (in May, the ratings improved slightly).
The economy is increasingly divided into a growing military sector, as well as one related to state procurement and import substitution, and a declining private sector. In the first quarter, 19 out of 24 types of manufacturing production recorded declines. This became one of the reasons hidden unemployment rising to the highest level in at least 10 years: in conditions of staff shortage, companies, hoping for a better future, try to retain employees.
As a result, wage growth slowed down, and the real disposable income of Russians (after deducting mandatory fees and adjusted for inflation), which had previously been growing rapidly, decreased for the first time in three years compared to the previous quarter, calculated the CMACP analytical center close to the authorities. After eliminating seasonal factors, in the first quarter they were 1%. lower than in October-December 2025
The FOM survey also shows that people's incomes have stopped rising. The median average disposable income per person this year is around PLN 27.5 thousand. rubles (PLN 1,413). All this does not encourage optimism.
CMAKP considers the decline in Russians' incomes to be a “formal correction” and expects their growth to resume in the second quarter. He does not find an explanation for the “rapid, almost linear decline” in Russians' assessments of the standard of living and the economic situation “against a generally favorable background”, but notes that the “unexpectedly long and deep” decline in assessments has itself become a factor influencing people's behavior and the entire economy.
People have lost optimism and are increasingly worried about their financial situation. As a result, they save more and more. The “Levada Center” polls, like those of FOM, note a decline in the consumer sentiment index: in the first quarter it approached the pessimistic zone. Weak demand deepens the recession because, as CMACP notes, household consumption is the main driver of the economy.
