President Donald Trump is making his first visit to China in a decade this week. But in contrast to the lavish reception of 2017, Beijing today presents itself as a far more confident global power, led by a leader who no longer has any illusions about his ability to strike lasting deals with Washington.
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump/PHOTO: AFP
A paradigm shift in Beijing
If in 2017 Chinese officials saw Donald Trump as a pragmatic businessman with whom they can negotiate, today the approach is radically different. Chinese and American experts alike suggest that Xi Jinping wants to project China as a stable and responsible alternative to the “volatility” of US foreign policy, writes The Washington Post.
“China's comprehensive national power has grown significantly since 2017,” explains William Klein, former senior official at the US Embassy in Beijing. That confidence translates into less willingness to make unilateral compromises in the face of pressure from the White House.
The summit, postponed since March because of the conflict in Iran, comes at a time of vulnerability for Washington. The US is embroiled in a protracted conflict in the Middle East, which has hurt the global economy and generated domestic discontent for President Trump.
The main points of tension on the agenda:
1. Export controls: Both states have imposed restrictions on each other, affecting supply chains.
2. Maritime sanctions: The US has targeted Chinese shipping firms suspected of ties to the regime in Tehran.
3. Debt and trade: Beijing recently managed to score a legal victory after the US Supreme Court overturned the 145% tariffs previously imposed by Trump.
Taiwan and the “leverage” of raw materials
America's regional allies, such as Japan and Taiwan, are watching the talks with concern. There are fears that Xi Jinping could take advantage of the US distraction in the Middle East to extract concessions on Taiwan's status.
Moreover, China has recently demonstrated its strength by limiting exports of rare metals, essential raw materials for advanced technology. This move sent a clear message to Washington: Beijing has critical economic leverage and is willing to use it.
“China believes it is such a great power that it no longer needs to play Trump's transactional game. It believes it can beat the US at its own game,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations researcher.
Diplomacy without expectations
Unlike the 2017 visit, when Xi closed the Forbidden City specifically to American guests, current expectations are minimal. The lack of intensive diplomatic preparations between the two governments ahead of the summit indicates that a substantial joint communique is unlikely.
The Chinese leader must prove to the elites in Beijing that he can manage the relationship with China's biggest rival.
China is facing an economic slowdown and needs a stable external trade environment to avoid a prolonged recession, especially as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war threatens China's energy security.
Although Beijing officially rejects the concept of the “G2” (a world ruled by two superpowers), its actions indicate that it now considers itself an equal to the United States in managing global affairs. In a year 2026 that promises to be defining for bilateral relations, this week's meeting is more of an endurance test than a new beginning.
