This week there will be several important publications describing the condition of the Polish economy. We'll find out preliminary GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2026, final April inflation data and March balance of payments.
“After a poor start to the year, when economic activity was affected by unfavorable weather conditions (severe frosts and snowfall), March brought a clear improvement. Despite this, we estimate that the annual GDP growth was slightly lower than in the fourth quarter of 2025 and amounted to 3.8%. y/y” – say economists from ING Bank Śląski.
A quarter earlier, the growth rate was 4.1%. y/y. As ING experts point out, the market expects an increase of 3.6%. y/yso it is more pessimistic.
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“The outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East increased fuel prices and translated into deteriorated sentiment among households and enterprises. We expect that there will be a further slowdown in economic activity in the second quarter of 2026“- economists warn.
Their the forecast for the entire 2026 assumes GDP growth of 3.4%.compared to 3.7 percent expected at the beginning of the year.
Inflation in Poland. Economists' forecasts
Full inflation data for April will also be released this week. At ING they expect the initial estimate to be confirmed 3.2 percent y/y (this would mean an increase from 3% in March).
“The market will pay attention to the structure of price increases. Calculations based on partial and incomplete data indicate that core inflation contributed significantly to the increase in inflation. Investors and analysts will carefully analyze whether this was solely due to the increase in prices of fuel cost-sensitive categories (airline tickets, trips abroad), or perhaps we are already dealing with the first signals of the emergence of secondary effects” – they comment.
See also: Inflation in the EU accelerated more than in Poland. New data
Their estimates show that Core inflation excluding fuel and energy increased to approximately 2.9%. with 2.7 percent y/y in March.
Balance of payments. Time for new NBP data
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will publish the March balance of payments in the coming days. ING economists forecast that current account balance recorded a deficit of EUR 296 million. A year earlier, the deficit amounted to EUR 1 billion 91 million.
“If our forecast is realized over the next twelve months, the deficit will decrease to 0.8%. GDP from 0.9 percent GDP after February” – point.
They forecast an increase in exports expressed in euro at 8.1%. y/y, with an increase in imports by 3.1%. y/y.
