How the Trump-Xi meeting could shape relations between the two superpowers for many years to come

Security around Beijing's historic Tiananmen Square has been heightened for days, with rumors circulating on social media about a special parade or other major event, the BBC writes.

Trump's visit to China will include talks, a banquet and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, an imperial temple complex where emperors prayed for a good harvest.

And both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hope the visit will bear fruit. This summit between the world's two most powerful leaders promises to be one of the most important meetings in recent years.

For months, the relationship with China has been a secondary priority for Trump. The focus was on the war with Iran, military operations in the Western Hemisphere, and domestic politics. But that all changes this week. The future of global trade, rising tensions in Taiwan and competition in advanced technology are now at stake.

Economically, the trade war with the US and the conflict in Iran may be bad news for Xi, but ideologically and politically they are a card he can play smartly.

China and Iran – a friendly relationship, but based on interests

China is trying to intervene quietly as a peacemaker, with the war now in its third month. Beijing joined Pakistan as a mediator in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Officials from Beijing and Islamabad presented a five-point plan in March aimed at achieving a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. And behind the scenes, Chinese officials gently coaxed their Iranian counterparts to the negotiating table.

There is no doubt: China is eager to end this war.

The country's economy is already experiencing slower economic growth and a higher unemployment rate. Rising oil prices have driven up the cost of items made with petrochemicals, from textiles to plastics. For some Chinese manufacturers, costs have increased by 20%.

China has enviable oil reserves, and its leadership in renewable energy and electric cars has insulated it from the worst effects of the fuel crisis, but the war is causing further distress to a sluggish Chinese economy that relies heavily on exports. However, if China steps in and helps the US, it will want something in return.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Beijing last week seemed intended to show the kind of influence China has in the Middle East.

The US was watching the situation closely. “I hope Chinese officials will tell him what he needs to be told,” said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “And that is that what you do in the straits isolates you globally.”

The US also tried to persuade China not to block a new UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran's attacks on ships trying to transit Hormuz after this, and Russia rejected an earlier proposal.

“I think if we want to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, the United States has to recognize that China is going to play an important role,” says Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group.

Trump, for his part, seemed unfazed by China's close relationship with Tehran. While the US recently sanctioned a Chinese-based refinery for transporting Iranian oil, the president last week downplayed any Chinese support for Iran during the conflict.

Taiwan's future

The Trump administration has sent mixed signals regarding Taiwan.

Last December, the US announced an $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, angering the Chinese government in the process. Trump, however, downplayed the US' willingness to defend Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.

“He thinks he's part of China,” Trump said of Xi. He also said that Taiwan does not give enough to the US for its security guarantees, even adding that it “doesn't really give us anything”. Last year, it imposed 15 percent tariffs on Taiwan and accused it of stealing U.S. semiconductor production.

Last week, Rubio said Taiwan would be a topic of conversation during the visit, but his goal was to ensure the issue did not become a source of new tensions between the two superpowers.

“We don't need any destabilizing event to happen with respect to Taiwan or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific,” he said. “And I think this is to the mutual benefit of both the United States and China.”

For its part, China has signaled that Taiwan is a priority in these talks. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week that he hoped the US would make the “right choices” during a call with Rubio.

Beijing has stepped up its military pressure by sending warplanes and warships around Taiwan almost daily.

Some analysts believe Chinese officials may push for a wording change to the text on Taiwan, carefully drafted in 1982. Washington's latest stated policy is that it does not currently support Taiwan independence. Could Beijing insist on harsher wording such as “US opposes Taiwan independence”?

“I just don't think President Xi will accept that,” says John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society's Center on US-China Relations. “Even if Trump says something clumsy, akin to a capitulation to Taiwan, because he's not so careful with the language he uses, the Chinese know it's better not to make too much of it, because he can reverse the situation with a post on Truth Social a week later.”

Important trade negotiations

For most of 2025, the US and China appeared to be on the brink of a new trade war, one that could shake the foundations of the global economy.

Trump has repeatedly raised and lowered tariffs on America's largest trading partner, sometimes reaching rates of more than 100 percent.

China responded by cutting exports of rare earth minerals to the US and purchasing US agricultural exports, hurting farmers in key states that voted for Trump.

The temperature has cooled considerably since Trump and Xi met face-to-face in South Korea last October.

But Trump and Xi will have plenty to discuss during the summit in Beijing. The American leader will insist on increasing Chinese purchases of American agricultural products. China is sure to pressure the US to drop a recently announced trade probe into unfair trade practices that could give Trump the ability to reimpose higher tariffs on Chinese goods.

This will be difficult for the American side. “It could be difficult for the US to drop investigations into all of China's unfair trade practices, given how widespread and distortive they still are,” says Michael O'Hanlan, the Phil Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, DC-based think tank.

The Trump administration is also inviting CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing and other big companies to accompany him on the visit, according to Reuters.

Although China is no longer as dependent on the US for trade as it was during Trump's first term as president, Xi will want this meeting to go well because China needs stability in the global economy.

It is now the main trading partner for more than 120 countries, but Xi knows he cannot appear too confident during Trump's visit.

“As long as the visit goes smoothly and Trump comes to the conclusion that he has been treated with respect, then the calm in the bilateral relationship will persist. If, on the other hand, if Trump does not feel respected or treated with contempt, then he may change his mind,” said Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton Center on China at the Brookings Institution.

The future of artificial intelligence

China is in a race to control the future. Invest heavily in artificial intelligence and humanoid robots. They are part of what Xi describes as “new productive forces” that he hopes will propel China's economy forward.

Many US policymakers, however, believe that official Chinese policy is to co-opt or outright steal American technology to develop their domestic industries. This led to restrictions on the export of the latest microprocessors, for example, despite the objections of American manufacturers.

The successful resolution of the thorny issue of Chinese ownership and operation of the popular social media app TikTok was a rare happy ending for US-China technology interactions, which are often beset by accusations and suspicions.

This dynamic is manifested in the race to develop artificial intelligence systems, perhaps the most important technological development of modern times. The issue is complicated by US allegations that Chinese companies like DeepSeek are stealing American artificial intelligence.

“The beginning of an artificial intelligence cold war is shaping up,” says Yingyi Ma of the John L Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. “The White House has accused China of stealing US AI models on an 'industrial scale', while Beijing has reportedly taken steps to prevent Meta from acquiring Manus, a Chinese-founded AI start-up now based in Singapore. The deeper contest is not who copies whose model, but the talent capable of building the next generation of frontier AI.”

Chinese robots are able to put on shows, perform Kung Fu dance moves and race faster than humans during a Beijing marathon.

But while Chinese companies seem to be experts at building the bodies of these robots, many are still working on programming the brains of their new creations. To build the best, Chinese companies need state-of-the-art computer chips, and they come from the US.

This is where Beijing could use its influence over rare earths, a critical sector that Trump covets. It processes around 90% of the world's rare earth minerals, which are essential to all modern technology, from smartphones to wind farms and aircraft engines.

So there might be a deal to be made. The US can have Chinese rare earths in exchange for high-performance chips.

Despite all the political ground the two sides have to cover, Trump's visit will be a whirlwind tour, with meetings and events scheduled for Thursday and Friday.

There may not be much time for the two leaders to reach substantive agreements, but even such a brief meeting could set the trajectory of negotiations and relations between the two superpowers for years to come.