It was another very successful year for investors. This time, precious metals, Polish shares and debt funds surprised positively. The rates of return of the main stock indices as of December 19 this year were: S&P500 +16.2%, Nasdaq +20.7%, DAX +22.0%, CAC +10.4%.
S&P500 – last year
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Stooq.pl
Polish shares were an absolute hit, closing the analyzed period with a new all-time record of 115.5 thousand. points, as much as +45.2 percent this year Among the blue chips, the best results were provided by companies with State Treasury participation: KGHM (+127%) and Orlen (+112%), as well as mBank (+93%), and the worst performance was CCC (-34%).
WIG – last year
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Stooq.pl
The broad market of medium-sized and smaller Polish companies did not disappoint, although they remained slightly behind the largest ones. sWIG80 reached 28.9 thousand. points, +22.3 percent this year In turn, mWIG40 remained at record levels since May, growing by 30.9%. The brightest stars of the WSE were, among others: Polimex (as much as +280%) or Dadelo (+174%). The ones that lost the most value were: PCF Group (-57%) and Arctic (-48%).
sWIG80 – last year
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Stooq.pl
It was a successful year on bond markets, especially in our country, as we await further rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council. The yield on US 10-year treasury instruments fell to 4.15%, on German 10-year treasury instruments it increased to 2.90% and on Polish 10-year treasury instruments it fell to 5.24%, causing the yield of the best bond funds to exceed 10%. this year The situation on our corporate debt securities market continued to be very good. The inflow of funds to short-term debt funds was favorable, and they recorded very good investment results, the best at the level of approximately +6.5-7%. this year
Yield of 10-year Polish treasury bonds – last year
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Stooq.pl
In the case of raw materials, especially precious metals, we have experienced the most spectacular boom in years. Significant gold prices rose to $4,387 per ounce (+66%). The price of the second precious metal — silver — significantly appreciated to $67.5. per ounce (as much as +131%). Copper rose to $5.51 per pound (+37%). Only oil fell to $57 per barrel (-21%), which was very good news for all of us.
Gold – Last Year
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Stooq.pl
The zloty exchange rate has strengthened, in line with the basic principle: good market conditions favor our currency. As of December 19, the quotations were: euro PLN 4.21 (-2%), dollar PLN 3.59 (-13%) and franc PLN 4.51 (-1%).
Forecasts for 2026
Most of the most renowned banks in the world forecast a continuation of the current year's trends in next year. There is a fairly widespread expectation that stocks and precious metals will continue to rise and the dollar will remain weak. There are many arguments for this continuation scenario. The problem is that, as a rule, in financial markets, the majority is wrong, and the chances of gold topping the ranking of the rates of return of the most important assets for the third time in a row are rather slim.
Annual rates of return of key assets – last 20 years
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Tomasz Hońdo/qnews.pl
Even if we assume that the continuation scenario may take place in the first weeks or maybe even the first months of the new year, the entire year 2026 may bring a lot of surprises due to the price levels of various assets or events that are not yet discounted by investors.
Therefore, below we present our main assumptions in the base variant for the entire year 2026:
- bonds – positive: debt funds, both short-term and especially treasury bond funds, will beat the interest rates on bank deposits;
- shares – neutral: in the United States, after three years of boom, shares are very expensive, but with the support of AI, the Fed and a forecast increase in profits by as much as 14%. In Poland, despite three years of boom, shares are still not expensive, the leaders will change towards medium and smaller companies, there will be no shortage of various market opportunities;
- precious metals – negative: currently gold and silver are in a speculative bubble, at the end of 2026 they may be cheaper than today.
The most important risk factors include: still geopolitics, unpredictability of President Donald Trump, possible collapse of the AI/crypto trend, weakness of state finances, possible widening of credit spreads.
In sum, we do not set the bar of expectations high for 2026. The good market situation has been going on since October 2022. However, there will be no shortage of investment opportunities, and the rates of return of many investment funds should again prove to be better than bank deposits with increasingly lower interest rates.
