“Putin is afraid and the whole world saw it.” He knows the Kremlin from the inside and talks about Moscow's historic failure. “He angered many Russians”
Samuel Schumacher: No tanks, almost no guests, but plenty of air defense systems. Vladimir Putin limited the Victory Parade to an absolute minimum. What does this tell us?
Gulnaz Partschefeld: Putin is afraid. Even though not a single Ukrainian drone appeared over Red Square, the world saw how desperately he tried to force a ceasefire for the day of the parade. Fearing the impression his truncated ceremony would make, he again canceled invitations to the international press.
Why didn't Putin spare himself the humiliation and simply cancel the parade?
Putin needs these celebrations to show strength to the elite, the army and society. Canceling the parade would be Russia's biggest defeat since the beginning of the war.
When, as a student, I took part in these parades myself, the atmosphere was shaped by the moving stories of veterans. The consensus was clear – war must never happen again. Putin reinterpreted this culture of memory under the slogan “we can do it again” – with a clear reference to the march all the way to Berlin.
What would happen to Putin if Ukraine attacked his parade despite all security measures?
Then he would have to leave Red Square as quickly as possible. This would be the ultimate sign of weakness. As president, he presented himself as a strong man, bare-chested, rode horses, fished big, played hockey.
He consciously cultivated the image of the head of state who would not be intimidated by anyone. And now he would have to run away from Ukrainian drones? This would mean that he became extremely vulnerable.
How is its popularity currently in Russia?
“The numbers are extreme”
Does Putin realize how weakened he is? Or maybe he believes in his own propaganda?
On the other hand, he realizes that he has always managed to get out of difficult situations. Maybe it will work this time too.
Criticism of Putin is becoming louder. Is it dangerous for him?
Parliamentary elections will be held in Russia in September. I can imagine that by then Putin will be saying in his speeches that thanks to public criticism he has become aware of the problems. He will then fire several ministers and may even benefit politically from the criticism.
Still, he has to face danger. European intelligence services assume that a coup attempt is imminent.
It may also be a Western disinformation campaign aimed at sowing uncertainty in Moscow. However, I think it is very likely that someone will at least try to stage a coup.
Russian elites do not support all of Putin's actions. If they see that Putin is weakening and can no longer provide them with benefits, he will become useless to them. It is not surprising that Putin is now isolating himself. Caution has always been his credo. He took the maxim from Dzerzhinsky: “Trust, but verify.”
What worries people in Russia the most right now?
Moreover, cutting off access to the Internet not only causes irritation, especially among young people, but also harms all companies that depend on online commerce and are now going bankrupt.
Ukraine says Putin cut off the internet to quell protests against impending mass mobilization.
He will not announce mass mobilization before the September parliamentary elections.
Can he wait that long? Ukraine loses over a thousand soldiers every day.
The numbers are extreme. However, Russian society still seems to be enduring these losses. The families of the fallen receive high compensation. Moreover, the regime continues to recruit almost exclusively from remote inland regions. Residents of large cities who would be most likely to engage in political protests have so far been spared.
Ukraine is increasingly effectively attacking targets deep inside the Russian Federation with drones and cruise missiles. No one can feel safe in Russia anymore.
That's true. Image of “special military operation” [tak Rosja nazywa inwazję] far away in Ukraine, which has nothing to do with their own country, begins to falter. The Kremlin pretends that it still has everything under control, while at the same time conveying that it is in an existential fight against the “terrorists” who are now attacking Russia.
Many military bloggers in Russia wonder aloud whether it is really worth sacrificing everything for a few new Ukrainian territories when at the same time vast areas of the Russian hinterland are being destroyed. They see it as an unfavorable territorial exchange.
Putin's polling numbers have dropped to a historically low 73%. Is it dangerous for him?
As long as at least 60 percent society officially supports it, there is no threat. From this point on, the Russian elite will begin to wonder whether this man can still guarantee the stability he needs to conduct his business. However, I don't think this will happen.
So there is still no reason for real concern for Putin?
Is. He would like people to follow his project of a new, great Russian Empire voluntarily, that is, for ideological reasons. Instead, it must admit that it can only achieve its goals, if at all, through enormous pressure on society.
It would be interesting to see how many young men would go to the front if they weren't paid so much for it or if they weren't able to benefit their children in finding a place at college. I don't think there would be many of them.
Let's sum it all up: economic crisis, threat from drones, image problems. Will Putin soon be forced to enter into serious negotiations with Ukraine to end the war?
This would require three different factors – all at once. Pressure from US President Donald Trump, the economic crisis that will hit society hard, and the elite that will force him to change course out of fear of losses. If these three factors converge, and only then, will Putin have to end the war.
