Iran would need a year to build a nuclear weapon. The war produced limited damage, the US Intelligence Service claims
U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time frame required for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon has remained unchanged from estimates made last summer, despite the recent military conflict and attacks on strategic targets, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Iran's nuclear program was not significantly delayed by the war. Photo: Archive
Analysts would have concluded that while US and Israeli military operations have affected Iranian infrastructure, they have not significantly altered the estimated timeline for Tehran's eventual military nuclear capability.
“Assessments on Iran's nuclear program remain largely unchanged,” the cited sources said, even after an intense military campaign targeting installations in several regions.
Last summer, US intelligence estimated that Iran could produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon and could build such a bomb within three to six months. After the June attacks on targets such as Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, the estimates were revised to about nine months – one year.
The strikes have severely damaged several enrichment facilities, but there is no confirmation yet on the status of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has failed to verify the location of approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which is believed to be stored in underground areas.
The IAEA estimates that the entire stockpile of highly enriched uranium could be enough for about 10 bombs if further processed.
In an official reaction, White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said that “Operation Midnight Hammer destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities, and Operation Epic Fury capitalized on that success by decimating Iran's defense industrial base.” adding that “President Trump has long said Iran will never have a nuclear weapon — and he's not bluffing.”
And Vice President JD Vance reiterated the US administration's goal, stating: “Iran can never be allowed to get a nuclear weapon. That is the goal of this operation.”
U.S. officials say the lack of change in estimates of how long it will take Iran to develop a nuclear weapon also reflects the fact that recent strikes have not primarily targeted critical nuclear infrastructure, but rather conventional military capabilities and command centers.
“As far as we know, Iran still has all of its nuclear material,” said Eric Brewer, a former US intelligence analyst, adding that they “they are probably in deeply buried underground sites where US munitions cannot penetrate.”
In recent weeks, riskier scenarios, such as ground operations to recover enriched uranium stocks, have also been considered, but they remain options.
Iran consistently denies that it is pursuing the development of a nuclear weapon, and US intelligence and the IAEA say that its military nuclear program was halted in 2003, although suspicions and differing assessments remain among experts.
“I think everyone agrees that science can't be bombed, but know-how can certainly be destroyed”said David Albright, a former UN inspector, noting that removing some nuclear specialists could harm Iran's ability to develop a functional weapon.
Assessments thus remain divergent, but the general consensus of US intelligence services indicates that, despite the conflict and recent attacks, the estimated time to a possible Iranian nuclear weapon has not changed significantly.
