Far right in the lead: Le Pen and Bardella lead the field of candidates for the French presidential election by a large margin
Either of the two candidates of the far-right National Assembly party would easily win the first round of the 2027 presidential election, according to the latest poll cited on Monday by 20minutes.fr.
A new survey conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6/RTL shows that both possible candidates of the National Assembly (RN), France's far-right party, continue to dominate the analysis of voting intentions for the 2027 presidential election, well ahead of Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal.
The party has not yet decided who will be the candidate in the elections, with Marine Le Pen awaiting a final decision by the judiciary in the case in which the first sentence of the court suspended her right to hold public office.
The polling institute therefore tested four scenarios for the first round, with Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen for the RN and Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal for the center bloc.
Jordan Bardella would get 34 or 35% of voting intentions, and Marine Le Pen 32 or 33%.
Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal are rated at 19% and 14% of voting intentions respectively.
Mélenchon, Glucksmann, Retailleau
In both scenarios, Emmanuel Macron's two former prime ministers come second to the RN candidate.
In the scenario in which Gabriel Attal is the candidate of the center block, he would be closely followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France Insubordinate – LFI), Raphaël Glucksmann (Place Publique) and Bruno Retailleau (Republicans – LR).
The LFI leader, who formalized his candidacy on Sunday, is at 12% of voting intentions (13% in a scenario with Jordan Bardella and Gabriel Attal).
Glucksmann, the Social Democrat MEP, founder of the Place Publique party, is at 11 or 12%, depending on the scenarios.
Toluna Harris Interactive does not include any potential socialist candidates in this poll.
The president of the Les Républicains party, Bruno Retailleau, would be better placed (13%) in a scenario with Marine Le Pen and Gabriel Attal than in a first round with Jordan Bardella and Edouard Philippe, which would bring him 9% of voting intentions.
On the left, environmentalist Marine Tondelier is rated at 4% in all scenarios, and communist Fabien Roussel at 3-4%.
On the far right, Reconquête president Éric Zemmour is rated at 5-6%.
Voter concerns
The poll also looks at the current reasons voters are voting in the first round of this presidential election.
Purchasing power (52%), health (41%) and immigration (37%) thus appear as the three themes that matter in the choice of the French, before taxes and taxation (31%), security and assets (28%), but also pensions (28%).
In this regard, the perspectives are quite different from a political point of view: if purchasing power is among the three main voting motivations of all voters, regardless of their political orientation, immigration is the first element mentioned by both LR sympathizers and those of RN or Reconquête!
These last two groups of voters also unsurprisingly mention the topic of security. Notably, 34% of President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance supporters cite debt/deficits as a motivation for voting.
The poll notes that 51% of French people think it is important that their candidate has the ability to beat Jean-Luc Mélenchon should he qualify for the second round, and 42% think their candidate should have the ability to beat Jordan Bardella.
54% also want their man of choice to prevent Jean-Luc Mélenchon from qualifying for the second round, compared to 37% for Jordan Bardella.
If Renaissance sympathizers equally express a desire to “block” both the LFI and the RN candidate, the LR and RN supporters are very clear in their desire to eliminate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, while the LFI and Ecologist supporters overwhelmingly want to eliminate Jordan Bardella.
