Russian oil exports, slightly affected by Ukrainian attacks / Zelensky wants to hit targets at greater distances

Russia in April managed to keep crude volumes at its key ports at March levels, despite Ukrainian drone attacks, and may even see an increase in May, according to industry and trade sources and Reuters estimates. On the other hand, President Zelensky announces that Ukraine's missiles and drones will hit targets located far from the common border, reports Agerpres.

Drone attacks on ports and pipeline infrastructure affected crude loading from Black Sea and Baltic ports in late March and early April, but did not lead to an overall reduction in supplies.

Temporary interruptions caused by attacks

Exports and transit shipments of Urals, Siberian Light and KEBCO crude grades from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk in April are estimated at approximately 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). It is approximately the same level as in March, according to market sources.

Crude oil exports from Ust-Luga were suspended on March 25, after a series of attacks, and resumed on April 7. And in the port of Novorossiisk, the transshipment of crude oil and petroleum products was partially resumed on April 9, after four days of suspension following the Ukrainian strikes.

Analysts expect Russia to be able to increase its crude cargoes in May on the back of improved port weather conditions, excess crude and stockpiles, barring external disruptions.

“There are large amounts of oil in the system, everyone is interested in exports,” but further drone strikes could disrupt Moscow's plans to increase exports, a source told Reuters.

Meanwhile, the resumption of crude oil deliveries to Slovakia and Hungary via the Drujba pipeline could ease the pressure on Russian ports, with total deliveries to the two countries estimated at 200,000 barrels per day (bpd). It is approximately the same level as in March, according to market sources.

Conversely, stopping the transit of Kazakh crude oil to Germany will increase transit volumes from Kazakh producers using Russian ports. Last year Kazakhstan exported 2.1 million tons of oil through Drujba to Germany, and in the first quarter of 2026 approximately 730,000 tons.

Bombardments over 1,500 km away

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Ukraine would continue to expand the range of its attacks on strategic targets on Russian soil, releasing images of what he said was an attack on a target more than 1,500 km away.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian territory, with the aim of destroying oil refineries, warehouses and ports and crippling Moscow's most important source of financing for the war in Ukraine, amid rising global prices due to the conflict in Iran.

In a post on the X platform, Zelensky said that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced a successful attack deep into Russian territory, calling it “a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit Russia's war potential.”

The Ukrainian president posted a video showing a plume of smoke rising into the sky, but did not specify which target was hit. “The straight-line distance is more than 1,500 kilometers. We will continue to expand these ranges,” he added.

Domestic missile production of Kiev

The SBU had previously confirmed that its drones hit an oil pumping station located near the Russian city of Perm, about 1,500 km from Ukraine, last night.

A Ukrainian drone attack caused a massive fire at an oil refinery in the port city of Tuapse on the Russian Black Sea coast on Tuesday, the third attack on the refinery in less than two weeks.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that since 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion against the neighboring country, Ukraine has expanded the range of attacks against Russia by 170 percent. In addition, the Ukrainian military has built up a stockpile of domestically produced long-range weapons.

In February, Ukrainian drones struck the refinery in Uhta, located in Russia's Komi region, about 1,750 km from the border with Ukraine, regional officials said.