First of all, let's clear up if you have a few questions answered. First question: Do you still believe in polls? Second question: Do you think that public opinion as reflected by polls matters, however little, to a true political leader? Third question: Who should you believe if the two sets of data, the polls and the leader's claims, are becoming more and more antinomian and it is obvious that one is a mystification of the truth? The fourth question: whatever the data, testimonies, reports from the field, are you deeply indifferent to the factual reality or not and still judge based on theoretical ideological preferences?
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In my opinion, these are justified questions because it is indeed interesting how the American public opinion reacts to Trump's decisions regarding the Iran war.
Interestingly, little is said because recent polling data shows that there is a large majority of Americans who believe that the war against Iran was a mistake with negative effects on both the US and the world economy, and that it adds a number of important unknowns to the central theme of any political campaign, i.e. estimating whether the standard of living will increase or decrease. The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll published yesterday https://abcnews.com/Politics/americans-increasingly-bleak-finances-us-military-iran-mistake/story?id=132547133 says something extremely serious: 61% of Americans are convinced that Trump's decision to use military force against Iran was wrong. Fewer than two in ten of those polled believe that the action in Iran is crowned with success. Only 36% believe the military action was justified. In addition, although there have been relatively few casualties among the American armed forces, the poll says that the war now is as unpopular as the war in Vietnam in the early 1970s. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-sinks-record-low-war-with-iran-drives-cost-of-living-concerns-2026-04-28/ – the level of approval enjoyed by Donald Trump is not very low: it is, according to the cited sources, between 34% and 37%.
There is a very serious piece of information in this survey about the mood of the US public: in the midst of war, we have an overwhelming response indicating that only 19% of those surveyed believe that US military actions in the Middle East have been a success, which, in itself, is a wake-up call for any political analyst.
But if we move the answers and analysis into the ideologically motivated area, then, the polls say, things become extremely simple: Republican support remains unchanged, with 83-86% of party members unhesitatingly supporting Trump while, in the opposite camp, the level of disapproval is about the same, that is, 76-86%, an interesting factor being the particularly high level of negative opinions 72% among young people.
But do you think that such a survey (like dozens of similar ones in recent times) should be taken into account on the grounds that this is how politicians hear the voice of the people? The response given by White House spokesman David Ingle deserves to be quoted even in the history books, with his statement that President Trump's military strategy is not based on public opinion: “The president is not taking these incredibly important national security measures based on fluid opinion polls, but in the interest of the American people.”
I think we've clarified how we feel about the polls, especially the ones that don't agree with us, and above all, when you're personally convinced, like Trump is, that the war is won, a “complete and total victory, 100%”, “it's all over in the first hour”, “we won this war, militarily they're dead”.
Shall we wait for the next poll and see confirmation?
