The signals that preceded the collapse of 2008 are reappearing, almost mirrored, in the global economy: funds limiting withdrawals, increasingly opaque debt in the area of private credit, rising energy prices and financial markets ignoring risks. From the collapse of Lehman Brothers to the current standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and the speculative boom in the S&P 500, the picture is starting to look more and more like it did before the last great crisis — the difference is that this time the world is entering the storm with less room to react.
A new financial crisis is looming on the horizon. Photo by Shutterstock
A wide-ranging analysis by the BBC highlights the similarities between the signals that appeared before the 2008 crisis and those that now portend another financial crisis.
On September 15, 2008, Bobby Seagull arrived at his office in Canary Wharf just before 6am. It was going to be the last day that punctuality mattered. He worked as a trader at Lehman Brothers, an American bank already in full collapse.
The night before, news of the impending bankruptcy filing had appeared in the US news. In Britain, however, no one knew exactly what this meant in practice, so employees were simply told to come to work “as usual”. That morning was, as Bobby describes it, “pure chaos.” Communication with colleagues in the US had completely disappeared, phones were no longer answered, and the atmosphere quickly became one of total disorganization. Some employees even started taking objects from the office, such as paintings, justifying the gesture by the fact that they were owed money or shares.
Anticipating that the situation could turn into a disaster, Bobby had taken precautions. On the last day, he had even bought himself a shopping cart, and in the summer of that year, amid a general restlessness, he had emptied his card from the vending machine — about 300 pounds — on chocolate. The motivation was simple: if the banking system or the machines stopped working, the card became useless.
In the end, like thousands of his colleagues, he put his career in a cardboard box — an image that would become symbolic of the global financial crisis. The collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered one of the deepest recessions since World War II, with thousands of companies bankrupt and millions of jobs lost.
The warning signs of 2026
Today, on the “dashboard” of the global economy, alarm signals are reappearing that have many wondering if the world is approaching a new financial crisis. The question is not only what this might look like, but also whether, in an international context more tense than in 2008, policymakers still have the necessary tools to manage it.
Before the 2008 crisis there were early signals, especially in the US subprime sector. In 2007, these investments began to collapse as homeowners defaulted on their rates. Funds managed by Bear Stearns, BNP Paribas and other institutions either froze withdrawals or were liquidated. These episodes were the first signs of a much deeper systemic crisis. As mistrust spread, banks stopped lending to each other, triggering a “credit crunch” that spread globally.
Currently, similar signals are emerging, but in a different area: the private credit market. Big asset managers such as BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo Global Management and Blue Owl Capital reported losses or limited investor withdrawals from funds that lend outside the traditional banking system.
Economists' concerns
Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England's deputy governor responsible for financial stability, warns that this market has grown rapidly, is poorly understood and has not been tested in a major crisis. In her view, there are “echoes” of the 2008 crisis: high exposure to debt, opacity, complexity and interconnectedness with the rest of the financial system. Moreover, many of the loans are themselves funded by other loans, creating a layered leverage effect that can amplify losses.
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The same concerns are expressed by Mohamed El-Erian, economic adviser to Allianz and former CEO of PIMCO. He believes that the risks are underestimated and that there are fragilities in the financial system that are not sufficiently understood. In his opinion, it was precisely the stricter regulations imposed on banks after 2008 that led to the accelerated development of private credit, which filled the gap left by traditional institutions. The problem is that an abundance of capital can lead to risky decisions, and in a negative scenario, simultaneous capital withdrawals can destabilize the entire system.
However, not everyone sees things the same way. Larry Fink rejects the idea that private credit poses a major systemic risk, arguing that the current problems affect only a small part of the market and that the financial system is much stronger than it was in 2008.
The current energy crisis is severe
Another possible risk factor is energy. Before the 2008 crisis, the price of Brent oil rose from around $50 to $147 a barrel, fueled by global demand and geopolitical tensions. Oil bounced back above $100 today amid tensions over Iran and blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, described the situation as the worst energy security crisis in history, even more severe than the shocks of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined.
In parallel, financial markets seem disconnected from these risks. Stocks are near all-time highs, and tech valuations are buoyed by the artificial intelligence boom. More than 2 trillion dollars have been invested in this field, in a phenomenon described by Bill Gates as a “frenzy”. At the same time, about 37% of the S&P 500 is concentrated in just seven major companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. A severe correction in this segment would affect not only investors but also pension funds and general confidence in the economy, similar to the collapse of the dotcom bubble in 2000.
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How prepared is the world for a new crisis?
However, the essential question remains: how prepared are the authorities for a new crisis? In 2008, governments and central banks intervened massively, bailing out banks and cutting interest rates in a coordinated effort. Today, the room for maneuver is more limited. The public debt is much higher, and the capacity of states to intervene is reduced. The International Monetary Fund warns that “policy space has been eroded” and international coordination is weaker than in the past.
In addition, the geopolitical context is much more fragmented. If in 2008 global leaders collaborated closely, including within the G20, today trade tensions, military conflicts and protectionist policies make cooperation more difficult. Gordon Brown has repeatedly pointed out that it was international cooperation that prevented a global depression almost two decades ago.
However, there are also elements of resilience. Banks are better capitalized than in 2008 and have higher liquidity reserves. Even so, warns Mohamed El-Erian, the risk is not necessarily an identical repetition of the financial crisis, but the amplification of existing vulnerabilities, which could push the global economy into a new recession.
And if this scenario materializes, the impact will not be evenly distributed, the BBC concludes. As in any crisis, the most affected will be the most vulnerable segments of the population — those with the least capacity to adapt and most exposed to economic shocks.
