The American blockade of Iranian ports has been ongoing since April 13. President Donald Trump claims that Iran is having financial problems due to the restrictions, but oil market analysts argue that the country has reserves that will allow it to survive restrictions on the sale of the raw material. One of the main goals of the US when introducing the naval blockade was to paralyze oil exports from Iran.
At the end of February, the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, which responded by attacking the Persian Gulf countries and virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz. The US blocked Iranian ports shortly thereafter. There is currently a ceasefire in force.
Oil exports are growing despite the blockade of Iranian ports
According to Kpler, an agency specializing in international trade analysis, Iran managed to export 1.71 million barrels of oil per day in April. This is higher than the 2025 average of 1.68 million barrels per day.
Frederic Schneider from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs points out that Tehran still has large oil reserves stored on anchored tankers outside the Middle East region. According to February estimates, they amounted to 127 million barrels.
Iran's reserves and Washington's patience
Iran was to some extent prepared for a conflict and a possible blockade of ports, and now it looks like it is implementing a long-term strategy, says Schneider. The expert emphasizes that it is not known how tight the restrictions are, how long Trump will be willing to maintain them and how long China will tolerate them. Beijing has already signaled that it considers paralyzing its trade with Tehran unacceptable.
— The behavior of both sides of the conflict shows that Iran is indicating that it can be patient, and Trump is showing impatience — adds Schneider.
Muyu Xu from Kpler, an oil market analyst, emphasizes that Tehran still has the ability to store the raw material in the country and will benefit from the sale of oil transported by tankers for several months.
Iran may profit from oil reserves until August
Experts estimate that between 160 and 183 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently on their way to destination ports. This means that Tehran will benefit from this until Augustand for the American leader, due to internal politics, this may be too distant a time horizon.
Adam Ereli, former US ambassador to Bahrain, estimates that the Iranian regime has a good chance of waiting Trump out and exhausting the patience of the American public.
