Risk appetite has not returned. But the zloty stopped weakening

Despite the weakening global risk appetite, the euro exchange rate interrupted the upward trend and stopped below PLN 4.25. Our currency was supported by very strong March data from the Polish economy.

On Friday morning, the euro cost PLN 4.2416 and was slightly cheaper than on Thursday evening. The day before, the euro exchange rate first increased quickly (reaching the level of PLN 4.2535), and later the morning weakening of the zloty was slightly offset.

All this happened in an environment of weakened risk appetite. This was a derivative of reports from the Middle East, where further incidents occurred in the Strait of Hormuz. This area, which is crucial for global oil and gas supplies, has been essentially closed to shipping since the beginning of March. And for now, there is no indication that it will be unlocked soon.

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– The situation in the Persian Gulf region remains tense. Trump announced the use of force against vessels mining the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining a full blockade of the route until an agreement with Iran is reached. The US Navy seizes tankers with Iranian oil, despite a formal ceasefire. Recent military actions, both on the side of the US and Iran, increase the risk of prolonging the conflict, PKO BP analysts wrote in their morning report.

This situation translates into the strengthening of the dollar. The EUR/USD rate has now permanently stayed below USD 1.17, dropping to the lowest level in 10 days. A strong dollar is usually bad news for currencies from emerging markets, including the Polish zloty. On the domestic interbank market on Friday morning, the price per dollar was PLN 3.6312. The USD/PLN exchange rate is therefore 4 groszy above the local minimum from a week ago.

The zloty was supported by very strong March data from the Polish economy. March industrial production shot up by 9%, which no one expected. Retail sales also grew at a slightly slower pace, which also positively surprised economists. However, such good results were to some extent the result of a combination of one-off events and are unlikely to be repeated in April.

Meanwhile, after a few days of stabilization, the Swiss franc fell again. In the morning, the Helvetian currency was valued at PLN 4.6118, almost a penny lower than the day before. The local minimum of the CHF/PLN exchange rate is PLN 4.5820. The British pound cost PLN 4.8906 after the pound-zloty pair was quoted as high as PLN 4.91 on Thursday.

K.K

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